Jul. 29, 2025 1:37 AM ETToast, Inc. (TOST) StockTOSTTunga Capital386 FollowersToast's operational momentum and improving unit economics are underestimated by investors focused on near-term valuation multiples.The company’s flywheel sales strategy and expanding TAM create a growing moat, with payback periods dropping and referrals rising.A Monte Carlo simulation of 10,000 scenarios yields a mean intrinsic value of $54.22, supporting a Buy rating with limited downside risk.Risks include restaurant industry cyclicality and tourist declines, but Toast’s long-term growth and margin expansion justify a bullish outlook.SouthWorksToast (NYSE:TOST) is hovering around its 52-week high, a milestone investors often use to voice concerns on valuation. However, this overlooks the operational momentum driving its future earning potential. To better capture this potential, I ran a simulation of 10,000 scenarios toThis article was written byTunga Capital386 FollowersAs an investor I focus on small and midcap names with asymmetric upsides. In the beginning of my professional career I was handed the Industrials and chemicals sector on the sell side. More recently I worked as the Manager of Finance & Technology at a Canadian charity in Vancouver, British Columbia. So there's a lot of diversity in my experience which is a by product me just wanting to keep on learning. And I think it sort of reinforces each other. My analysis is made richer by execution experience and execution is made richer by analysis experience. If you like my articles you can follow me, drop in a comment or send in a message. Happy to engage in a productive conversation :)Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, but may initiate a beneficial Long position through a purchase of the stock, or the purchase of call options or similar derivatives in TOST over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.Comments