The deals are stacking up—and Canada is currently in the “No Deal” line. While Canada remains part of the USMCA, ongoing negotiations seek to revise or replace key elements under pressure from U.S. tariff threats. Central to the standoff is the so-called “letter rate,” a 35% tariff outlined in Trump’s formal notice to Canada. If no agreement is reached by the August 1 deadline, that tariff could be imposed. Trump has said he does not expect a finalized deal by then. Prime Minister Carney called the talks “intense,” but admitted that a fully tariff-free agreement now appears unlikely.USDCAD continues higher for a fourth straight day, building on gains since bottoming last Wednesday at a key trendline on the hourly chart. The pair is up approximately 200 pips (+1.50%) from last week’s low.Today, price action extended above the early July high at 1.37735 and briefly broke the 50% retracement of the May high to June low move, which comes in at 1.3777. The session high reached 1.3780 before easing back to 1.3765 currently.What next?A sustained move above the 1.3777 midpoint would shift focus toward the June high at 1.3797, just shy of the psychological 1.3800 level. Break above that level and open the door for further upside momentum with the 61.8% at 1.38335 as a targetWhat would give buyers some concern after the sharp move higher?On the downside, there’s a swing area resistance between 1.3749–1.3759 (see red numbered circles), now acting as near-term support. Earlier today, the price stalled at the top of that zone before breaking higher—what was resistance is now support. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.