Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Sunday news programs said that the tariffs would go into effect on August 1. No more extensions. He also said the European Union must open its markets to U.S. exports if it wants President Trump to reconsider the 30% reciprocal tariffs set to take effect on August 1. Lutnick indicated that Trump is open to a deal, but currently sees only a 50-50 chance of reaching one. He emphasized that it depends on whether the EU can offer a deal “good enough” for Trump to back down. Trump is expected to meet European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen just days before the tariff deadline. He said on Friday that there were "20 different things" that needed to be resolved. Lutnick also said today that the tariff revenue would lead to $700B dollars of revenue a year into the US, or $7T in 10 years. Scott Bessent on July 8, put that number at $300B. The treasury collected $27B in June. That extrapolated out to $27 x 12 = $324B. Bessent was on target if not light at the time if the running rate continues. To get to $700B that would imply an increase to $58B per month.How does the math work?IN 2024, the total import of goods to the US was $3.295T. What average tariff rate would be needed to total $700B? = $700,000,000,000 / $3,295,000,000,000 = 21.24%That would be the average on imports at the 2024 pace. According to the Census Department from 2024 import, the top five countries importing goods into the United States—Mexico (15.5%), China (13.4%), Canada (12.6%), Germany (4.9%), and Japan (4.5%)—collectively accounted for 50.9% of total U.S. goods imports. This illustrates the strong trade concentration among North American and key Asian/European partners.Expanding to the top 10, which includes Vietnam, South Korea, Taiwan, Ireland, and India, the combined share reaches 73.8%, showing that a relatively small group of trading partners dominates the U.S. import landscape.When all top 15 countries are included—adding Italy, United Kingdom, Switzerland, Thailand, and France—they collectively account for 78.7% of total U.S. goods imports, leaving just over 21% spread across the rest of the world.Below is the country by country numbers:Mexico – 15.5%China – 13.4%Canada – 12.6%Germany – 4.9%Japan – 4.5%Vietnam – 4.2%South Korea – 4.0%Taiwan – 3.6%Ireland – 3.2%India – 2.7%Italy – 2.3%United Kingdom – 2.1%Switzerland – 1.9%Thailand – 1.9%France – 1.8%This is the table that by August 1, we will know what the tariff rates are and will see if the Treasury Secretary is right or wrong on his calculations. Will the 78.7% above be paying 21.24% to get to the $700B next year estimate?. Of course, not talked about is who pays for it all? Why would you do that when you can talk about $700B per year collected. If cost of imports in the US go up by 21.24% (the money has to come from somewhere), someone has to pay for it. Is it the foreign exporters via a reduction of prices at the expense of margins? Is it the US importers who eats the cost at the expense of margins? Is it consumers who absorb price increases (may be persistent over time) in the form of higher prices for imported goods?What we know is it is all rah-rah, look at all the money stuff has to be paid for by someone. There is no free lunch. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.