Donald Trump arrived in Scotland on Friday (July 25) on a four-day trip to inaugurate his new golf course. The news, while uncharacteristic of a democratically elected official, has become routine for the US president, with one report in the Associated Press saying, “the president has become increasingly comfortable intermingling his governing pursuits with promoting his family’s business interests.”During his stay, Trump is expected to meet with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen to discuss trade and cement agreements ahead of the tariff deadline on August 1. von der Leyen confirmed that the meeting would happen on Sunday in a social media post on Friday.Following a good call with @POTUS, we have agreed to meet in Scotland on Sunday to discuss transatlantic trade relations, and how we can keep them strong.— Ursula von der Leyen (@vonderleyen) July 25, 2025While Trump has long maintained that the trading bloc was formed to “screw” with the US, he told reporters ahead of his trip that there was a “50-50 chance” or “maybe less than that” the trade deal would be concluded over the weekend.What the prospective US-EU deal may look likeThe agreement, if realised, is expected to set a baseline tariff rate of 15% on most European imports into the US. Earlier this month, Trump had threatened to increase this rate to 30%, effective August 1, if a trade deal was not realised. The two have been in talks for nearly four months. Since April, the US has charged an additional 10% ‘reciprocal’ tariff on top of the pre-existing 4.8% average duty on imports from the EU.According to a Bloomberg report, the deal may see limited exemptions for aviation, some medical devices and generic medicines, some spirits, and a “specific set of manufacturing equipment that the US needs”. The report also said that the EU is negotiating a 15% ceiling on items that are not currently tariffed, such as pharmaceuticals. Further negotiations include a quota for steel and aluminium imports into the US, beyond which they may face a 50% tariff.The 15% tariff would also mirror the trade agreement the US concluded with Japan earlier this week, which would reduce tariffs on automobiles and spare parts to 27.5%.Tariff Tracker, July 23 | Trump’s 3 trade deals with Japan, Philippines, IndonesiaThe agreement would also cover non-tariff barriers, economic security cooperation and strategic purchases by the EU in sectors such as energy and artificial intelligence chips, Bloomberg reported. According to the report, the EU has also offered to remove tariffs on many industrial goods and non-sensitive agricultural imports.According to the Office of the US Trade Representative, the US’s total goods trade with the EU amounted to $975.9 billion in 2024, running a $235.6 billion trade deficit, a 12.9% increase over the previous year. The US was the EU’s largest trading partner in 2024, accounting for 20% of EU goods exports, according to European Commission data.Story continues below this adGermany, Ireland, France and Italy were the top exporters, with exports of over €200 billion (over $227 billion) of machinery and vehicles, €160 billion (over $182 billion) of chemicals and €25 billion (over $28 billion) of food and drink. Thus, the tariffs would adversely impact some nations and industries more than others. Pharmaceutical goods, aerospace, and automobiles will likely be the worst affected, unless the deal accounts for these.Data from the European Commission’s data wing, Eurostat, indicate that medicines were the EU’s top exports to the US in 2024, amounting to nearly €80 billion. And Ireland, which Trump has accused of having “the entire US pharmaceutical industry in its grasp”, would also stand to lose, given that it hosts the production bases of several American pharma companies.Similarly, the US has been the second major market for the European auto industry. Data from Acea (the European Auto Manufacturers Association) showed that the EU exported 757,654 new vehicles to the US last year, worth €38.9 billion, and imported 169,152 new vehicles from the US, worth €7.8 billion.EU counterretaliatory measures in placeIf the talks fail, the EU is prepared to penalise the US, and heavily. The 27 member states voted on Thursday (July 24) in favour of a €93bn retaliatory tariff package, at a 30% rate, in case a deal is not concluded by August 1. This package, the Financial Times reported, would become effective from August 7.Story continues below this adThe package comprises an initial list worth €21bn, which was announced in March in response to the 25% tariffs on US imports of European steel and aluminium, and is believed to target European imports of Harley-Davidson motorcycles, poultry and jeans. This package was since suspended in anticipation of a trade deal.The new list of €72bn reportedly includes tariffs on bourbon whiskey, chemicals, cars, aircraft and aircraft parts, according to a BBC report.According to the FT report, the EU may also consider activating the anti-coercion instrument (ACI), allowing it to block US companies from public tenders, revoke intellectual property protection and restrict imports and exports.