Solid July Job Gains Reinforce Fed’s ‘Wait and See’ Rate Stance

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Will this have any impact on what the Fed does with rates?Private sector companies added 104,000 new jobs in July, just one month after it lost 33,000 jobs – which has since been revised down to 23,000 job losses.The July job gains easily beat economists’ estimates of 64,000 new jobs this month.“Our hiring and pay data are broadly indicative of a healthy economy,” Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, said. “Employers have grown more optimistic that consumers, the backbone of the economy, will remain resilient.”The increase was due mainly to a surge in service jobs, as 74,000 service-providing jobs were added in July. Leisure and hospitality led the way with 46,000 new positions in July, while financials added 28,000 and trade/transportation/utilities gained 18,000 jobs. This was partially offset by 38,000 losses in education/health services.Goods-producing jobs rose by 31,000 in July, led by construction, which added 15,000. Natural resources/mining produced 9,000 new positions while manufacturing gained 7,000.“The health of the U.S. labor market, which is a primary consideration for the Federal Reserve when setting interest rates, can be a matter of individual perspective right now,” Adam Schickling, Vanguard senior economist, said. “If you’re a registered nurse, you may believe the job market’s health to be excellent. The unemployment rate for experienced health care practitioners is currently below 2%. If you’re young and just entering the labor force or you’re older and seeking to reenter it, prospects may seem bleak. The number of unemployed in these two categories has been rising.”The Western part of the country added the most private sector jobs in July, producing 75,000. The South was next, adding 46,000, while the Midwest produced 18,000. The Northeast was the only region to lose jobs, dropping 18,000.Looking at what type of companies the jobs are going to, both large and medium-sized firms added 46,000 jobs each, while small companies generated just 12,000.Pay remained the same, rising 4.4% for job stayers. Job changers saw their increases rise 7%, up from 6.8% in June. The biggest raises were in financials, which increased 5.1%, followed by manufacturing, up 4.6%. Construction, education/health services, and leisure/hospitality each saw 4.5% raises.Companies with more than 250 employees saw 4.8% raises, while firms with less than 20 workers saw 2.6% pay increases.The health of the labor market is part of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate, so it may have implications on what the Federal Open Market Committee decides to do Wednesday on rates.“If you’re a Federal Reserve policymaker concerned with setting a key interest rate, the labor market may appear just strong enough to wait for greater clarity about another potential development—the prospect of a tariff-induced reacceleration in inflation,” Schickling said.The federal jobs report comes out on Friday, which includes both public and private sector hiring trends.Original Post