EURUSD Technical Analysis – The market is “selling the fact”

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FundamentalOverviewThe USD regained someground in the final part of last week although we haven’t got any meaningfulcatalyst for the move. Overall, we continue to range as the market is waitingfor something new for the next sustained trend. Given that the “short US dollar”is now the most crowded trade, it will take something meaningful to lead themarket to expect more rate cuts than currently priced in. On the EUR side, we finallygot the US-EU trade deal which should reduce uncertainty. Many ECB members arenow taking a much more neutral approach to rate cuts. They will need significantnegative data to force them to cut further. The market is pricing around 65%chance of a cut in December but given the deal, and the ECB easing and fiscalexpansion in the pipeline, the ECB might really be done with rate cuts for thetime being.EURUSD TechnicalAnalysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we cansee that we have a key supportaround the 1.1575 level. If the price gets there, we can expect the buyers tostep in with a defined risk below the level to position for a rally into a newcycle high. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower toincrease the bearish bets and target the 1.11 handle next. EURUSD TechnicalAnalysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we cansee that we had a minor support zone around the 1.1720 level that got breachedtoday as the market is likely “selling the fact” on the 15% US-EU trade dealthat was already expected since the FT report. If we get a pullback intothe support-turned-resistance, we can expect the sellers to lean on it with adefined risk above it to keep targeting the 1.1575 support. The buyers, on theother hand, will look for a break higher to invalidate the bearish setup andposition for a rally into new highs.EURUSD TechnicalAnalysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, there's not much else we can add here as the sellers would be better off shorting from the 1.1720 resistance, while the buyers don't have key supports where to lean on around these levels. The redlines define the average daily range for today.UpcomingCatalystsTomorrow we have the get US Job Openings andConsumer Confidence data. On Wednesday, we have the US ADP, the US Q2 GDP andthe FOMC rate decision. On Thursday, we get the US PCE price index, the USJobless Claims and the US Employment Cost Index. Finally, on Friday, weconclude the week with the US NFP report and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.