Weekly Review: Forex fundamental analysis S&P 500SP:SPXjohnelfedforexblogThe week starting Monday 21 July was another week of positive sentiment, the S&P continues to hit all time highs and the VIX remains anchored below 17. The upbeat mood was propelled by an announcement of a tariff deal between the US and Japan. The market now thinks it's likely deals with EUROPE and CHINA will soon follow. All the while, earnings season continues to quietly slip under the radar (it's worth noting the upcoming week does have a plethora of huge companies reporting). An election in JAPAN caused uncertainty, giving the JPY a bout of strength at the beginning of the week. I then found it difficult to decide if the US / JAPAN trade deal would be positive or negative for the JPY, ultimately the overall positive risk tone prevailed and the JPY ended the week softly. It was also a week of two halves for the USD, the interest rate battle between the president and chair Powell continues to cause uncertainty. The FOMC meeting and the upcoming slue of reg flag US data will be very interesting. And could determine the underlying bias for the USD for the rest of the summer. The EUR and GBP were prominent throughout the week, a 'hawkish hold' from the ECB, combined with positive PMI data and hopes of a trade deal, all contributed to positive sentiment for the EUR. On the opposite end of the scale, the GBP ended the week bruised, weakened by another bout of 'soft data'. Which opened the door to potential 'relative fundamental' GBP short trades. Finally, 'fairly hawkish' comments from the RBA'S BULLOCK keeps the AUD high on my to long list. On a personal note, it was a week of two trades. I perhaps was a little bold in thinking the JPY post election strength was overdone, entering an AUD JPY long which stopped out. You might often think it's frustrating when a trade stops out, but then eventually hits the original profit target. Personally, I take the positive view that at least my original bias was proved correct. The week was saved on Friday with a EUR GBP long, post GBP retail sales data and trying to take advantage of the positive EUR sentiment. *As I write, it appears a US /EUR tariff deal is very close, which backs up thoughts of 'risk on' trades to begin the new week. Trade 1: AUD JPY -1 Trade 2: EUR GBP +1.5 Total = +0.5%