Walk-to-Work protests led by Dr. Kizza Besigye in 2011 were a result of politically induced inflationBy Julius BusingeIn 2011, monetary policy briefings at the Bank of Uganda Boardroom, Level 7, delivered by the late Prof. Emmanuel Tumusiime Mutebile and often flanked by his deputy, Dr. Louis Kasekende and other top technical officials, were must-attend events. As a business journalist, I—alongside others—made it a point to be punctual and attentive.These briefings were crucial, particularly as the Central Bank Rate (CBR) announcements attempted to rein in an inflation spike that had surged to 30%, largely due to excessive election-related government spending.The political scene today bears worrying similarities. In the lead-up to the 2026 general elections, money is once again flowing recklessly. From lavish cash handouts during the NRM primaries to vote-buying in the recently concluded Kawempe North by-election, and publicized on-the-spot disbursements by President Yoweri Museveni to Parish Development Model (PDM) beneficiaries, the patterns are all too familiar. These acts are not only economically unsustainable but also undermine fiscal discipline and monetary stability.Back in 2011, inflation didn’t rise gradually—it skyrocketed. What began as a seemingly routine election cycle ended in economic chaos. The spike to 30.4% inflation—the highest since 1993—was fueled by massive cash injections into the economy for political gains. GDP growth plummeted from 6.7% in 2009/10 to just 3.2% in 2010/11. Food prices rose by as much as 45%. The Uganda Bureau of Statistics showed matooke prices jumped 23% in a single month.The Walk-to-Work protests led by Dr. Kizza Besigye were a direct response to this fiscal mismanagement. These protests highlighted the growing public unrest over surging living costs, exacerbated by government excesses. Besigye was detained multiple times, and violent crackdowns ensued.It was a dangerous period in Uganda’s political economy, proving that macroeconomic instability is not just an economic risk—it’s a political one too.Despite assertions from some analysts that vote-buying had limited impact on Museveni’s 2011 re-election, the economic consequences were undeniable. Even Prof. Augustus Nuwagaba of Makerere University (currently Deputy Governor at BoU) pointed to poor fiscal management as the real culprit behind the inflation surge.Fast forward to today, Uganda’s economy is showing signs of recovery. GDP growth is projected at 5–6% and could accelerate further in the medium term due to anticipated revenues from oil, gas, minerals, and tourism, coffee and wider agriculture sector.Yet this progress is fragile. It depends on macroeconomic stability, especially amid global uncertainty. Any reckless election-year spending threatens to derail it.Key policy instruments like the CBR—currently at 12%—can only do so much to counteract demand-side pressures from uncontrolled government expenditures.The Bank of Uganda will face a steep challenge managing liquidity if politicians continue to flood the economy with cash.Since 2011, the BoU has modernized its approach through the introduction of Inflation Targeting Lite (ITL), aiming to keep core inflation at 5% with a ±3% band. This framework relies on transparency, frequent policy reviews, and operational independence. It is built on hard-won credibility that must not be undermined.Uganda’s FY2024/25 budget reflects a focus on the Agro-Industrialization, Tourism Development, Mineral-based Industrial Development including Oil and Gas, and Science, Technology and Innovation including ICT (the Knowledge Economy) (ATMS).This is linked to the National Development Plan IV (NDP IV) prioritizing industrialization, digitalization, and inclusive growth. These ambitious goals cannot coexist with fiscal recklessness. Every shilling misallocated to vote-buying is one less for education, health, and infrastructure.Let’s not forget what we have to lose. The tourism sector, on a slow but steady rebound, brought in $1.1 billion pre-pandemic. Oil and gas are expected to contribute significantly to GDP after 2026.Uganda also boasts rich mineral deposits now attracting global investors. Squandering this potential through political vanity spending would be both short-sighted and irresponsible.Amidst this backdrop of political spending and looming fiscal risks, the government has simultaneously demonstrated a strong commitment to growing the economy by investing heavily in critical sectors such as infrastructure and security.These investments are crucial—not only do they provide the backbone for economic productivity by improving transport, energy access, and connectivity, but they also ensure a stable environment necessary for attracting investment and sustaining long-term growth.Roads, industrial parks, energy projects, and defense modernization efforts have all been prioritized in recent budgets, reflecting a dual-track approach of economic transformation and national resilience.Therefore, the time for politicians to act prudently is now. Uganda’s voters are watching. Investors are watching. History, as taught by 2011, is watching. If Uganda is to rise into middle-income status and beyond, it cannot afford another economic misstep disguised as electioneering.The writer is a Ugandan business journalist and public relations specialist (juliusbusinge10@gmail.com)*This opinion was first published in The IndependentThe post Why Politicians Must Not Repeat 2011 Mistakes On Uganda’s Economy appeared first on Business Focus.