Get 100% ad-free experienceByEd YardeniPublished 07/28/2025, 07:12 AMMarkets Week Ahead: Fed Set to Hold Rates With September Cut on the TableView all comments (0)0This is a big week on the monetary policy front, with the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and Bank of Canada all holding policy meetings. Naturally, the main event will be the Federal Open Market Committee’s widely expected decision (Wed) to leave the federal funds rate unchanged. We are among those expecting no change.However, we do expect that Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference (Wed) will be relatively dovish, raising the odds of a September rate cut. Nevertheless, we remain in the one-and-done camp in 2025 for now.On Friday, the markets will receive a highly anticipated update on US employment. We expect the data to confirm, yet again, that the economy remains resilient. By the way, Friday is also August 1, the drop-dead day for many trade deals with the US.This week is full of reports that could influence the Fed’s thinking on whether slowing growth or accelerating price pressures is the bigger risk:(1) EmploymentWe expect to see July payrolls (Fri) rise by around 115,000, down from 147,000 in June. It will likely reach yet another record high, consistent with the record high in corporate earnings, since profitable companies tend to expand their payrolls (chart). We expect any slowdown in payroll gains to be related to a shortage of workers rather than a shortage of jobs.(2) GDPAfter dropping 0.5% y/y in Q1, real GDP growth (Wed) is likely to expand at a 2.4% y/y rate. That is in line with the latest Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracking model (chart). While much of the rebound will likely be driven by a narrowing trade deficit, domestic demand should provide some support.(3) Job openingsOn Tuesday, the ob openings data in June’s JOLTS report should show that this series remains relatively high, as suggested by June’s jobs plentiful series in the Consumer Confidence Index survey. That probably remained relatively high again in July (chart).(4) Personal incomeJune’s personal income and consumer spending (Thu) should rise based on the increase in payroll employment and retail sales during the month.(5) InflationJune’s headline and core PCE inflation rates (Thu) are projected to be up 2.5% and 2.7% y/y, according to the Cleveland Fed’s Inflation Nowcasting tracking model (chart). Both could be a bit hotter.Original PostMarkets Week Ahead: Fed Set to Hold Rates With September Cut on the TableView all comments (0)0Latest commentsInstall Our AppScan QR code to install appRisk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.