Country: Syrian Arab Republic Source: SARI Global Please refer to the attached file. Over the past 48 hours, Israel has significantly escalated its military posture in southern Syria. Confirmed Israeli airstrikes targeted multiple locations in Sweida governorate, specifically the areas of Walgha, Mazraa, Najran, and Thaala, targeting Syrian government-aligned forces assets and buildings. These strikes are part of a broader pattern of increased aerial and intelligence activity across the Syrian-Israeli border zone. While Israeli media outlets have suggested ongoing targeting in Dar'a governorate, the reported airstrikes in that region remain unconfirmed.However, a notable increase in Israeli Armed Forces ground monitoring, aerial activity, and military presence near Tassil has been documented, with reinforcements arriving in western Dar'a countryside and vicinal communities of Quneitra. Concurrently, partial withdrawals of Internal Security Forces (ISF) from Nawa have been observed.Surveillance and Reconnaissance ActivityThere has been a marked increase in aerial surveillance and electronic monitoring operations along the Israeli-Syrian frontier, with activity intensifying over the past 48 hours compared to previous days. This includes the deployment of Israeli drones and reconnaissance aircraft over both border and interior areas in Sweida and Dar'a.Public Reaction and UnrestIn Sweida, two separate protest actions were reported, during which demonstrators were observed carrying Israeli flags. Within Druze circles, scrutiny has grown around Sheikh Laith al-Balous, especially amid reports of his disagreements with Sheikh Hikmat al-Hajari regarding the coordination and support of recent armed activities in Sweida. In Aley in Lebanon, Sheikh Balous' temporary residence was surrounded by rioters on July 29, showcasing the scrutiny he now faces from a disgruntled constituency. The lack of unified Druze leadership positions could complicate both civil mobilization and any future external political engagement, while providing an oppurtunity for an increase in tensions and hostilities in Sweida.Media Discourse and Strategic SignalingIsraeli media have ramped up discussion about a possible IDF ground or hybrid operation in southern Syria, with specific mention of Sweida governorate. These discussions follow statements by Israeli security commentators suggesting preemptive military measures against cross-border threats and protection of Israeli interests in Syria.Forecasting and Risk OutlookDespite the formal ceasefire, tensions between Sheikh Hajari and the Syrian government remain unresolved, with sporadic clashes continuing in western and northern Sweida. The humanitarian situation in these areas continues to deteriorate, further undermining local stability. While no formal military campaign has been declared, early warning indicators for a resumption of hostilities and a wider Israeli operation have now been triggered.Given the sustained Israeli aerial activity, partial withdrawals of Syrian forces, and open discussions in Israeli media, the likelihood of broader Israeli action in southern Syria is increasing. Without deescalation, the situation is expected to deteriorate further in the short term.