After a shaky start to the year, the US economy bounced back in the second quarter with a 3.0% annualized GDP growth rate, outpacing economists’ expectations of 2.3%. This sharp rebound followed a first-quarter contraction of 0.5%, primarily driven by businesses stockpiling imports ahead of expected tariffs. While the headline figure is encouraging, the broader picture is far more nuanced—and perhaps less reassuring.Trade Dynamics Boost the NumbersThe second-quarter rebound was largely driven by international trade swings. Exporters rushed shipments ahead of potential tariffs, while imports slowed after businesses had already filled inventories. These short-term moves padded the GDP number but don’t reflect stronger underlying demand. The real economy—what Americans and businesses are actually buying—tells a more cautious story.Consumer Spending Holds Steady, But Not StrongConsumer spending rose at a modest 1.4% pace, an improvement from the first quarter, thanks to a resilient labor market and solid wage growth. But it wasn’t enough to fully counterbalance weaker business investment. In fact, the measure that excludes volatile components like trade and inventories—final sales to private domestic purchasers—slowed to 1.2%, down from 1.9% in Q1. That suggests both businesses and consumers are becoming more cautious.Tariffs: Delayed, but Not ForgottenPresident Trump’s tariff policy remains the elephant in the room. The second quarter began with new global tariffs and ended with delayed threats of even higher ones. Investors and consumers were momentarily relieved by the delay, but uncertainty still looms large. August 1 stands as a new deadline when tariffs are expected to rise again for countries without trade agreements. Until then, many remain in “wait-and-see” mode.Labor Market Sends Mixed SignalsJobs growth picked up, with employers adding nearly 150,000 jobs per month on average in Q2, up from 111,000 in Q1. The unemployment rate stood at a healthy 4.1% in June. However, job openings and hiring momentum have cooled. Companies are showing caution—not cutting en masse, but also not expanding aggressively. This quiet hesitation hints at underlying stress, especially with major policy deadlines looming.Warning Signs from the Consumer FrontProcter & Gamble (NYSE:PG), a reliable barometer of household behavior, offered a worrying signal this week. CFO Andre Schulten noted that American consumers are using up stored goods, delaying purchases, and making fewer shopping trips. These behavioral shifts reflect a subtle but growing strain on consumer confidence, even if it hasn’t yet shown up in the broad data.Inflation Remains Contained—For NowDespite policy pressure, inflation hasn’t taken off. June’s consumer-price index ticked up moderately, but not alarmingly. That’s good news for now, but some economists believe the real effects of Trump’s trade and immigration agenda could emerge later. The lag between policy and impact is real, and what feels manageable today could be more disruptive in quarters to come.The Resilience Narrative Faces a Test“We’ve basically been in this soft landing now for some time,” said JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, noting the economy’s resilience in Q2.But that resilience will be tested. With policy uncertainty swirling and underlying demand weakening, the second half of 2025 will reveal whether the U.S. can sustain this stability—or whether the real turbulence is yet to come.Conclusion: Strong Topline, Soft UndercurrentThe 3.0% GDP print looks impressive, but when trade distortions are stripped out, the U.S. economy appears less vigorous. Consumer resilience is slowing, business investment is hesitating, and policy risks are stacking up. The next few months—especially post-August 1—will determine if this was a brief return to strength or just a calm before another storm.