sme ipo make or break position ,be cautious S&P BSE SMALL AND MEDIUM ENTERPRISES IPO INDEXBSE_DLY:SMEIPOdarwas121 ⸻ 🔍 Chart Setup Overview •Pattern: Symmetrical Triangle (consolidation zone — make-or-break pattern). •Current Price: ₹109,635 (right at Fibonacci 0.618 level). •Moving Averages: Clustered, indicating indecision. •Key Levels (Fibonacci & Triangle) clearly suggest a breakout/breakdown zone. ⸻ 📉 Downside Possibility (~60%) 📉 Upside Possibility (~40%) Based on chart structure and current position near triangle resistance, downside has a higher probability unless a breakout happens soon. ✅ Targets: 1.1st Downside Target: ₹91,388 •Corresponds to 0.236 Fibonacci level of the entire upmove. •Drop of ~16.6% → ✔️ Your level is accurate. 2.2nd Downside Target: ₹85,703 •0.618 Retracement from the broader previous upmove. •Drop of ~21.8% → ✔️ Your second target is also valid. 📌 Break below the triangle support would likely trigger both targets. ⸻ 📈 Upside Possibility If it breaks above the triangle resistance, the structure has good momentum potential: ✅ Upside Target: •₹127,873 (1.0 Fibonacci extension of previous top) •Gain of ~16.7% → ✔️ Your upside target is correct. 🚩 But breakout must be confirmed with volume, else it’s a false breakout risk. ⸻ 🔺 Conclusion: You are right. •The risk-reward ratio slightly favors the downside unless there’s a convincing breakout. •The 60% downside probability estimate is reasonable based on chart pattern, resistance levels, and trend weakening.