JPY/USD — Long-Term Technical Setup & Market OutlookJAPANESE YEN / U.S. DOLLARFX_IDC:JPYUSDWavervanir_International_LLC💱 JPY/USD — Long-Term Technical Setup & Market Outlook 1. 🧭 Market Context & Catalysts US-Japan monetary divergence: The Fed remains rate-tight while the BoJ maintains ultra-loose policy, putting persistent downside pressure on the yen. Economic drivers: Strong US economic data (growth, labor, inflation) supports USD strength; Japan’s macro data remains soft. Sentiment signals: Hawkish Fed tone continues; safe-haven flows may limit further USD gains in geopolitical risk shifts. 2. 🧱 Technical Structure (Daily Timeframe) Break of structure (BOS) below 0.00700 signaled the dominant bearish regime. The price retraced into the 0.786–0.886 Fibonacci zone (~0.00676–0.00679), then resumed selling—textbook re-entry into areas of liquidity (Equilibrium). Current price sits near 0.006631, just below BOS and equilibrium zone—suggesting continuation of bearish order flow. Fibonacci extensions show projected targets at 0.006632 (1.236), 0.006588 (1.382), 0.006517 (1.618), and potential support area at ~0.006400. A stronger support zone exists near 0.006276 (Weak low / domain demand zone). 3. 📝 Trade Plan & Risk Controls Continuation Setup: Look to enter on a clean bearish candle close near ~0.00665. Target the Fibonacci extensions at 1.236, 1.382, and 1.618—approximately 0.006632, 0.006588, and 0.006517 respectively. A deeper extension into the 0.006400 zone is also possible. Place the stop-loss just above 0.00670, as this level invalidates the recent break of structure and implies rejection of downside continuation. Pullback Re-entry Setup: If price retraces higher, consider a re-entry short near ~0.00680. Use the same Fibonacci targets as above. Invalidate the setup if price breaks above 0.00680, which would suggest a shift toward bullish structure or absorption of the prior supply zone. 4. ⚠️ Watch Key Risks & Signals If price breaks above the 0.786 zone or creates a higher high above equilibrium, bearish thesis fails. Monitor US data releases: FOMC minutes, inflation or jobs data—shifts could accelerate USD momentum. Geopolitical shocks or risk-off flows could trigger yen strength reversal. ✅ Summary Outlook JPYUSD remains firmly bearish with technical integrity intact. Valid corrective levels now become sell zones toward continuation targets. Extended downside toward 0.00640 area is plausible, with further drop to 0.006276 zone if trend continues strongly.