EURUSD January 2026 fundamental analysisEuro/US DollarFX:EURUSDOneirotradeEUR/USD Current Level: 1.17189 | 1-Month Change: +1.53% | Trend: Uptrend Fundamental Analysis: EUR/USD is in a structural uptrend driven by Fed easing expectations contrasting with ECB's hold stance. The Fed is expected to cut rates by 50-100 basis points in 2026 (from 3.50%-3.75% toward 3.00%-3.25%), while the ECB holds at 2.00%. This creates a narrowing interest rate differential as the US moves lower. Additionally, the structural US dollar weakness is being driven by: (1) Fed easing cycle ahead, (2) large fiscal deficits, (3) current account deficits, and (4) capital rotation from US to Europe. The euro is supported by: (1) ECB on hold with potential for future hikes, (2) improving eurozone growth (German stimulus, defense spending), and (3) capital inflows. Technical levels show the pair above 1.17 with the next resistance around 1.19-1.20. Year-end 2026 forecasts suggest 1.20-1.25 is a fair target. Recent Price Action: Uptrend with +1.53% monthly gain. The pair broke above 1.1585 resistance in December and is testing psychological levels. Momentum is positive. Verdict: BUY – Fed easing expectations, structural dollar weakness, ECB hold pattern, and positive technical momentum all support continued EUR/USD strength toward 1.20 in January-February.