Breaking news this weekend! Gold analysis for Monday.GoldOANDA:XAUUSDzleo0400The fundamentals for gold remain bullish in the long term. The geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela escalated significantly over the weekend. Buying by major central banks, stockpiling by miners, and further easing by the Federal Reserve will all drive the upward momentum. In short, gold's dip is for a better jump later. On the one hand, the significant gains accumulated earlier may prompt some traders to take profits or rebalance their investment portfolios; on the other hand, the CME Group, one of the world's largest commodity trading platforms, has increased margin requirements for gold, silver, and other metal futures. This means that traders need to pay more margin when establishing positions. While this measure is intended to prevent potential default risks during contract delivery, it will also, to some extent, curb speculative buying in the market. In addition, geopolitical risks have always been a major driver of price increases for traditional safe-haven assets like gold. During periods of increased market uncertainty, gold, with its excellent store-of-value properties, often becomes a "safe haven" for capital. I believe the two key drivers of gold's performance in 2025 are: a highly tense geopolitical and geoeconomic environment, and a weaker dollar coupled with marginally lower interest rates. The future price of gold will depend more on the interaction of these two macroeconomic trends. The current gold price reflects, to some extent, the market's expectations of the macroeconomic consensus. However, in reality, the economy rarely follows the "consensus script," meaning that gold prices may still deviate significantly in the future – if a mild US economic downturn prompts the Federal Reserve to further cut interest rates and the dollar continues to weaken, gold will be supported; if the economic and policy environment improves significantly, the risk premium on gold may be reversed, with a potential retracement of 5% to 20%. Some also caution that the "rate of increase is unsustainable" after gold prices doubled in two years. Commerzbank expects gold prices to rise to around $4,400 in 2026; some independent analysts, while bullish on gold's continued rise, also believe that it's not a bad thing for the market to start discussing a "bubble"—a bubble doesn't mean an immediate burst, but rather a reminder to investors that volatility will increase. Overall, the strong surge in gold prices in 2025 is changing its asset characteristics: gold is no longer just a single safe-haven asset, but is becoming an important "strategic allocation asset" for global capital to hedge against geopolitical risks, policy uncertainties, and fluctuations in the dollar system. Retail investor sentiment is extremely optimistic, and Wall Street investment banks generally maintain a bullish outlook. The core logic lies in the continued high intensity of central bank gold purchases, the expectation of declining real interest rates that has not been completely reversed, and the persistence of macroeconomic uncertainties. Although the gold price trend in 2026 is unlikely to replicate the "accelerated linear trend" of 2025, under the support of multiple forces, the "probability of reaching new highs" is still widely considered greater. Market expectations for gold to reach $5,000 are gradually evolving from a minority view to a broader consensus. Gold price trend analysis for next Monday: This week, the market was affected by the diversion of funds due to the surge in Chinese concept stocks and concerns about tightening global liquidity, causing gold prices to fall again after touching the 4402 level. Although the weekly chart barely held the key moving average support, and the daily chart showed resilience in resisting a second test of the 4270 level, the overall upward momentum was severely insufficient. Currently, the market is in a wide-range oscillating pattern with "resistance above and support below," waiting for new volume signals to break the balance. From the 4-hour chart, gold prices fluctuated lower again on Friday. Although the decline was limited, if it effectively breaks below the key support of 4300, it may open up further downside potential. Currently, the short-term moving average group has turned downwards, forming resistance, and the MACD indicator is also running below the 0 axis, indicating increased bearish momentum. If the price weakens first, attention should be paid to the support strength in the 4305-4300 area. A technical rebound may occur on the first touch. This week, the price tested 4300 twice and rebounded to 4400 twice, which is a structural adjustment after a sharp decline. On Friday, I emphasized that this wave of gold prices had formed a head and shoulders bottom pattern at the bottom. Once it stabilizes above 4400, the bulls will surge again, targeting 4500 and 4550, and in the overall trend, we shouldn't try to predict the top. However, if it doesn't stabilize above 4400, it will be considered low-level consolidation after a significant drop. Therefore, the outlook for next week is likely to be similar. Currently, the closing price is around 4330. Will next week's opening follow the opposite trend of this week's opening? Given the safe-haven news over the weekend, I believe there's a high probability of a direct upward movement. In summary, for short-term trading next Monday, I recommend focusing on long positions, with short positions as a secondary strategy. The key resistance level to watch in the short term is 4400-4405, and the key support level is 4270-4300. Everyone should keep up with the pace.