January 3, 2026 07:16 AM IST First published on: Jan 3, 2026 at 07:15 AM ISTUS President Donald Trump is no fan of either multilateralism or multilateral partnerships — the UN, NATO, G20, G7 have all faced either his ire or cold shoulder. That made the recent announcement of the US-led Pax Silica initiative — to secure supply chains in critical minerals, energy, semiconductors and AI — noteworthy. The nine member countries do not include India. That the initiative is implicitly directed at countering China makes India’s exclusion puzzling. Or does it? In Trump’s transactional world, India’s exclusion makes perfect sense.Each of the nine member countries — the US, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, the UK, the Netherlands, Israel, the UAE and Australia — brings something to the table either in terms of high technology capability or resources (energy/minerals). India isn’t even among the “guests”, which include Canada (resource-rich) and Taiwan (semiconductors). In the things that preoccupy today’s great power politics — semiconductors/AI and energy/minerals —India doesn’t bring much to the table.AdvertisementThis is a result of India not giving enough attention to high technology and minerals over decades. The statistics are telling. India spends just 0.6-0.7 per cent of its GDP on R&D. And this percentage has been largely unchanged for the last two decades. The US and China spend roughly 3 per cent and 2.5 per cent of GDP respectively on R&D. South Korea and Israel spend close to 5 per cent of their GDP on R&D. It is hardly surprising, therefore, that India has not emerged as a product or innovation nation. The only sector in which India has acquired some cutting-edge capacity is space.A similar story of stagnation is in the minerals sector. India has one of the finest geologies in the world (comparable to Australia) but it has only explored 25-30 per cent of its geological potential. India is a massive importer of oil and gas — 90 per cent of our requirement comes from overseas. It is also a huge importer of gold (99.9 per cent) and copper ore (95 per cent). It even imports apparently abundant minerals like coal and bauxite. In critical minerals, like lithium, the import dependence is 100 per cent.Mining contributes just 2 per cent of GDP. Like in R&D, its share hasn’t moved much over time. In countries of comparable geology, it is 8-10 per cent.AdvertisementIn minerals, the policy preoccupation has been on how to allocate resources (pre-2014, it was first-come-first-serve, thereafter auction) or how to secure revenue for the government. But these are relevant only for resources that are explored, discovered and mined. The bigger part of India’s mineral wealth is lying deep underground, unexplored and undiscovered. It needs a different policy approach. The government cannot be the sole explorer. The private sector has to step in. And the private sector will only step in if the government allows it to monetise any discovery freely without government intervention.most readIf India wants to be relevant in the emerging geopolitics, it has to be a player in the emerging geo-economics. The only other option — call it the third way — for India to get a seat at the global high table in this new era is to leverage the one thing it does have — its market. Open it to the transactional Trump and the rest of the world, and there will be great interest. However, the reality of politics and the difficulty of domestic policy reform means that India will err on the side of protectionism. The prolonged negotiations over the trade deal with the US are evidence of India’s very cautious approach.For long, India has banked on its potential — as an economic heavyweight and a political counterweight to China —to be accorded a place at the global high table. India’s potential is intact. But it will still take time to realise it fully. Today’s geopolitics is based on what is, not what might be. It is all about actuals and delivery, and not a matter of good faith.India’s time will come. With a bit of urgency, it can come sooner than later.The author is chief economist, Vedanta