Winter Watch: The Big Charlie Appleby Prediction for 2026

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It's that time of year where everybody who's anybody in racing is being asked for their 2026 predictions. Already, I've seen four different staying chasers nominated as the likeliest winner of the Cheltenham Gold Cup – Galopin Des Champs is a decent bet to regain his crown at 6/1, if you're asking – while Flat racing fans can be found staring deep into their crystal balls, trying to pinpoint the five Classic winners of 2026.On Friday, it was exactly four months until the 2,000 Guineas kicks off the proper stuff at Newmarket. The ante-post market for that Classic suggests it's Aidan O'Brien who holds all of the aces, with Albert Einstein, Gstaad and Puerto Rico currently occupying three of the first five positions in the betting. In the 1,000 Guineas, the Ballydoyle challenge looks even more formidable, with Precise and Diamond Necklace the only two runners currently trading at single-figure odds.A lot can change in four months, however. Just ask Charlie Appleby, who dominated last year's Newmarket Classics when Ruling Court and Shadow Of Light finished first and third, respectively, in the 2,000 Guineas, before Desert Flower completed a landmark weekend for Godolphin with her success in the 1,000 Guineas. Within four months, Ruling Court had sadly succumbed to laminitis, while Desert Flower never ran again after finishing third in the Oaks and Shadow Of Light failed to win any of his three subsequent starts.It's fair to say that the three-year-old team at Moulton Paddocks was severely diminished by the absence or underperformance of those star players during the second half of 2025. Symbol Of Honour (Sandy Lane Stakes) and Silent Love (Princess Of Royal Stakes) were the only other members of that age group to win a Group race in Europe last year, suggesting the stable stalwarts Rebel's Romance and Notable Speech will be required to do plenty more heavy lifting in the older horse division in 2026.What about the latest crop of three-year-olds coming through, I hear you ask? Well, whisper it quietly, but this division is where Appleby is potentially blessed with far more strength in depth than he was in 2025.For a start, Appleby sent out no fewer than eight individual Group-winning juveniles in Europe last year, namely Wise Approach (won the G1 Middle Park Stakes), Saba Desert (G2 Superlative Stakes), Words Of Truth (G2 Mill Reef Stakes), Dance To The Music (G3 Sweet Solera Stakes), Distant Storm (G3 Tattersalls Stakes), Beckford's Folly (G3 Cornwallis Stakes), Time To Turn (G3 Horris Hill Stakes) and Al Zanati (G3 Prix Thomas Byron).Perhaps just as exciting is the swathe of novice/maiden winners coming up behind them with the potential to do so much better than what they've had the opportunity to show so far. Talk Of New York (Wootton Bassett), for example, is not far behind the likes of Albert Einstein and Gstaad in the ante-post betting for the 2,000 Guineas, despite having only won a 1m maiden at Kempton in October.More recently, 'TDN Rising Star' Nation's Hope (Ghaiyyath), Abashiri (Frankel), Hidden Force (Frankel) and King's Trail (Sea The Stars) have all emulated Talk Of New York with impressive Kempton victories of their own. In December alone, Appleby saddled eight new juvenile winners, another four of whom we'll discuss below.First, though, how about a prediction?Charlie Appleby will win at least one Group 1 race in Europe in 2026 with a three-year-old that started its career on the all-weather.You heard it here first. More to Come from Maho BayPerhaps the most exciting colt from Moulton Paddocks to put his name into that conversation in recent days is Maho Bay (Dubawi), who justified odds-on favouritism in straightforward fashion when winning the 11f maiden run at Kempton on December 17.Ridden by Billy Loughnane in his ultimately successful push to reach 222 winners in 2025, a record tally for a Flat jockey since the turn of the century, Maho Bay treated his young partner to an armchair ride. Racing in a clear second for much of the contest, he moved up to lead two furlongs out, before drawing right away under a hands-and-heels ride to hit the line six lengths clear of his closest pursuer.Maho Bay is the third winner from as many runners out of Appleby's GI Natalma Stakes heroine La Pelosa (Dandy Man), with the others including the GIII With Anticipation Stakes third Cavallo Bay (Pinatubo). This colt must be considered a smart middle-distance prospect in the making, with a step up to a mile and a half – and perhaps further still – promising to play to his strengths in time. It's Wednesday and it's Kempton, so of course @godolphin unleash yet another potentially smart newcomer.Step forward Dubawi colt, Maho Bay @loughnane_billy | @WillHillRacing pic.twitter.com/FXNh8WpR8r— Racing TV (@RacingTV) December 17, 2025 Meanwhile, stablemate Golden View looked a speedier much proposition in winning the 7f novice staged on the same card. The son of Dubawi showed signs of inexperience with a sluggish exit from the stalls and when hanging right under pressure, but he was ultimately well on top at the finish, beating Aqpan (Blue Point) by 1 1/4 lengths as the first two pulled fully nine lengths clear of the rest. By way of comparison, Aqpan had finished 1 3/4 lengths behind Appleby's Hidden Force when making his debut at Kempton over a fortnight earlier.Golden View is the first foal out of the G3 Grosser Preis der Landeshauptstadt Dresden winner Alpen Rose (Sea The Stars) and can count the 1,000 Guineas heroine Sleepytime (Royal Academy) as his fourth dam. Alpen Rose showed her best form at up to a mile and the promising Golden View looks cut from a similar cloth in terms of his trip requirements.Completing Appleby's quartet of juvenile winners since Winter Watch last went to print are Man Of Vision (Dubawi) and Carnival Queen (Ghaiyyath), both of whom got off the mark at Wolverhampton.Gelded after twice failing to win on turf, Man Of Vision made it third time lucky with an emphatic display to land the 7f novice staged on December 27, forging clear in the final furlong to land the spoils by four lengths. He probably isn't in his stable's A-team for 2026, but his pedigree will be an ongoing recommendation as the first foal out of the G2 Balanchine winner Summer Romance (Kingman), from the family of last year's G1 Irish 2,000 Guineas and G1 St James's Palace Stakes scorer Field Of Gold (Kingman), among others.As for Carnival Queen, she proved a much sharper model with her debut run under her belt when shedding her maiden tag over just shy of 10f on December 20. She'll be suited by longer trips if the manner in which she powered to the line is anything to go by, getting the verdict by 2 1/2 lengths to become the fourth winner out of the unraced Fastnet Rock mare Rocana. The others include the G3 Chester Vase hero Youth Spirit (Camelot) and Listed Feilden Stakes scorer Canberra Legend (Australia). Extremely Zain Looks Extremely GoodThe first lot to go through the ring at the inaugural Goffs Classic Breeze-up Sale last June, Extremely Zain emerged as one of the headline acts at Kildare Paddocks when purchased by Mark McStay of Avenue Bloodstock for €185,000, having previously fetched €75,000 at the Arqana October Yearling Sale.The Classic Breeze-up Sale was introduced to cater for later-maturing juveniles in Ireland and Extremely Zain's debut in the final days of his two-year-old campaign certainly proved well worth the wait. Facing nine rivals in the 6f novice staged at Newcastle on December 29, the son of Hello Youmzain looked a colt potentially out of the top drawer in winning by seven lengths, going on the bridle for a long way and quickly sprinting clear when shaken up in the final 100 yards.Extremely Zain is one of five winners from six runners out of an unraced full-sister to the multiple Group 1 heroine Lush Lashes (Galileo), from the family of the G1 Deutsches Derby-winning sire Buzzword. It's a pedigree of contrasts, with Hello Youmzain an influence for speed and plenty of stamina on the distaff side, so it's hard to know what his optimum trip will prove to be.Either way, the change of gear Extremely Zain showed at Gosforth Park should stand him in good stead when the time comes for him to be tested in a higher grade. He's in good hands with William Haggas and it will be interesting to see whether the Somerville Lodge trainer chooses to save him for a turf campaign or give him a bit more experience on the all-weather in the meantime. Extremely Zain, remember the name! @WilliamHaggas' charge showcases an eyecatching turn of foot when romping to victory on debut at @NewcastleRaces…@CierenFallonJr3 pic.twitter.com/kqz4J51St1— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) December 29, 2025 Guildmaster Adds to Godolphin RichesThe Gosden stable has taken out a couple of big prizes on the all-weather in recent days, with the improving Shader (Shamardal) winning the Listed Wild Flower Stakes at Kempton and Nebras (Dubawi) battling to victory in the Listed Quebec Stakes at Lingfield.It's the next generation of talent at Clarehaven Stables that we're more interested in for the purposes of Winter Watch, though, including a colt such as Guildmaster, who looked another bright prospect in the Godolphin blue when winning the 1m novice at Lingfield on December 22.Sent off the 13/8 favourite in a field of 12, Guildmaster impressed most with his strength at the finish after running a bit green on the home turn, drawing right away once back on an even keel to win by three lengths in dominant fashion, with the runner-up, Northern Empire (Night Of Thunder), pulling another five lengths clear of the third.Bred by Jim Bolger, the son of Teofilo first sold for €100,000 at the Goffs November Foal Sale, before changing hands again for 325,000gns at Book 2 of the Tattersalls October Yearling Sale. A full-brother to the G1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud hero Gear Up and the G3 Eyrefield Stakes victor Guaranteed, he is bred to stay well and should progress and win more races when he steps up to middle-distances as a three-year-old. A horse to follow for team Gosden!Guildmaster was plenty green enough but has all the tools to open his account at the first time of asking and does so in good style in our @LingfieldPark opener! pic.twitter.com/X14SyYRBrB— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) December 22, 2025 Then, perhaps in a neighbouring box at Clarehaven, there's Marc Chan's Saxon Street, who looked a similar type to Guildmaster when making a successful debut at Chelmsford on December 18. Sent off the 8/11 favourite for that 1m novice, the son of Saxon Warrior made life difficult for himself with a slow start, but he too was doing his best work late on after navigating traffic early in the straight, responding well to his rider's urgings from there to run out an authoritative winner by a length.Like Guildmaster, Saxon Street, a €170,000 purchase at Book 1 of the Goffs Orby Yearling Sale, has a pedigree that suggests he'll have more to offer as his stamina is drawn out further. He is out of the Sea The Stars mare Sea Is Gold, an unraced full-sister to the G1 Sydney Cup hero Shraaoh, multiple Group winner Raheen House and Listed Prix des Tourelles – Fonds Europeen de l'Elevage scorer Sea Of Faith. The Wolves Novice with a Rich Roll Of HonourFinally, a word for two horses trained by George Scott and Richard Hughes, both of whom will look back on 2025 fondly having celebrated their breakthrough triumphs at the top level.Scott was responsible for Objector who, on December 27, won a novice at Wolverhampton which has a rich history, with the subsequent Group scorers Anisette (2022), Lady Of Spain (2023) and Merchant (2024) featuring among its previous winners.The 7/1 fourth choice of punters in a field of 12, Objector travelled sweetly in mid-division, before making smooth headway to track the leaders with two furlongs to run. Produced to lead entering the final furlong, he soon put daylight between himself and the chasing pack, ultimately winning by three lengths in good style.That race was run over an extended mile and there shouldn't be any rush to go up in distance with a gelding whose pedigree is all speed. Sold by Yeomanstown Stud for €100,000 at Book 1 of the Orby Yearling Sale, Objector is a Dark Angel full-brother to the G3 Princess Margaret Stakes winner Angel's Hideaway and G2 Mill Reef Stakes runner-up Perfect Angel.Hughes, meanwhile, was on the money with Free Your Spirit, who showed his true worth at Wolverhampton on December 22, having been beaten at odds of 1/3 when making his debut at Lingfield five days earlier. Dropping back to 7f at Wolves, he raced in the box seat throughout, travelling smoothly on the coattails of the pacesetter, before asserting in the final furlong to run out a comfortable, three-length winner.One of 45 first-crop winners in Europe for Tally-Ho Stud's Starman, Free Your Spirit is out of a half-sister to the G1 Al Quoz Sprint scorer The Right Man (Lope De Vega) and his fourth dam is the French champion Three Troikas (Lyphard). He cost Hughes only £40,000 at the Goffs UK Premier Yearling Sale and looks well bought for a stable which enjoyed such a productive 2025.The post Winter Watch: The Big Charlie Appleby Prediction for 2026 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.