IBM Earnings Analysis Summary (2025-07-23)International Business Machines CorporationBATS:IBMquantsignals 🧨 IBM Earnings Trade Idea 🧨 Earnings Date: July 24, 2025 (AMC) 🧠 Confidence: 70% Bearish | 🎯 Expected Move: ~5% ⸻ 🔍 Snapshot Summary: •🐢 Revenue Growth: Flat at +0.5% YoY •⚠️ High Debt: D/E ratio at 247.98 — compression risk •✅ Beat History: 100% past 8 quarters, but… •🤔 Forward EPS Projections: +81.7% looks too ambitious •🔻 Analyst Target Below Market Price: $273.36 avg (vs. $281.96 now) •📉 Pre-Earnings Drift: Trading below 20-day MA •🛡️ Options Flow: Bearish bias, heavy put flow at $275/$255 strikes ⸻ 🧠 Strategy Rationale: Despite a strong beat history, IBM’s fundamentals are weakening — growth is stagnant, debt is high, and guidance may disappoint. Institutions are hedging downside via puts, and recent technical action shows momentum fading. ⸻ 📉 Earnings Trade Setup { "instrument": "IBM", "direction": "put", "strike": 280.00, "expiry": "2025-07-25", "entry_price": 6.30, "confidence": 70, "profit_target": 12.00, "stop_loss": 3.15, "size": 2, "entry_timing": "pre_earnings_close", "earnings_date": "2025-07-24", "expected_move": 5.0, "iv_rank": 0.60 } ⸻ 💼 Trade Details (Simplified) 🔧 Parameter🧾 Value 🎯 Strike$280 Put 📅 Expiry2025-07-25 💵 Entry Price$6.30 🚀 Profit Target$12.00 (200% gain) 🛑 Stop Loss$3.15 (50% loss) ⚖️ Position Size2 contracts ⏰ Entry TimingBefore close 7/24 📈 IV Rank60% ⸻ 🎯 Exit Plan: •💰 Profit Exit: Close if premium hits $12+ •⚠️ Stop Loss: Trigger at $3.15 •⏱️ Time Exit: Auto-close within 2 hours post-earnings to avoid IV crush ⸻ 🧠 Final Thoughts: “IBM’s history says beat — but the setup says trap.” If guidance stumbles, this low-beta name could slide, and bearish put flow is already sniffing it out. 📊 Are you riding the puts with this one, or fading the crowd? Let me know👇