Analysis and strategy of gold trend on July 21:GOLD / US DOLLARPYTH:XAUUSDGold_Entry_Point In-depth analysis of gold market and precise trading strategy Analysis of core contradictions Game of long and short forces: Short forces: Strong economic data (retail sales +0.6%, unemployment benefits 221,000) pushed the US dollar index to 98.95, and the US Treasury yield rose to 4.495% Bull forces: The safe-haven buying caused by inflation expectations formed a strong takeover, and the 3300 mark showed strong support Market signal interpretation: The deep V reversal shows the characteristics of "false breakthrough", and smart funds take the opportunity to absorb funds The negative correlation between US Treasury yields and gold has temporarily failed, reflecting the market's confusion about the Fed's policy expectations Technical three-dimensional analysis Daily level: MACD double-line golden cross, the upward momentum column is mildly increased KDJ golden cross runs above 60, not entering the overbought area Key watershed: 3320 (bullish defense line) vs 3375 (previous high resistance) 4-hour level: The rising channel is complete, and the low point gradually moves up (3309→3320) The angle after the KDJ golden cross is steep, indicating sufficient short-term momentum 30-minute short-term: 3350 constitutes the intraday long-short balance point If the Asian session falls and the callback does not fall below 3342, the strong structure will be maintained Precise trading strategy Main long plan: Ideal entry: 3332-3335 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level) Defense point: 3318 (Daily EMA30 support) Target ladder: 3355 (Start reducing positions and take profits) → 3372 (stop profit 50%) → 3398 (trend target) Secondary short opportunity: Trigger condition: first touch 3373 + shooting star pattern Stop loss setting: 3383 (previous high + 3 US dollars to filter false breakthroughs) Profit space: 3350-3340 (quick in and quick out) Breakthrough trading strategy: Break above 3380: chase longs when stepping back to 3370, target 3400 integer level Break below 3315: short when the price rebounds to 3325, target 3290 support Key price matrix Support level 3330 long-short boundary Support level 3310 trend lifeline Resistance level 3365 previous day high Resistance level 3375 weekly level strong resistance Special tips for risk management: Position control: single transaction does not exceed 3% of the principal Time window: US market volatility is usually magnified by 30% Emergency warning: Speech by Fed officials may trigger a $50 fluctuation The escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East will trigger safe-haven buying Operational suggestions: The current market is in a key direction selection window, and it is recommended to adopt a combination strategy of "breakthrough follow + callback buy". Focus on the breakthrough of the 3365-3375 area during the US trading period. If three consecutive 15-minute K-lines stand at 3370, the upward space will be opened. Conservative investors can wait for a pullback to the 3330-3335 area to arrange mid-term long positions.