By: B A HamzahTrump: like it or lump itDriven by his obsession with MAGA strategy, US President Donald Trump seems determined to arrest America’s decline by weaponizing tariffs, with the ASEAN countries in the bullseye, expected to pay a significant price if they don’t align their interests with Washington’s. For example, the 10 countries that make up the Association of Southeast Asian Nations treaty organization stand to lose critical economic diversification as they become more integrated with China’s massive markets, although this is not a new phenomenon. The entire maritime states in Southeast Asia have been doing business, mainly barter trading of exotic products, for thousands of years even before the arrival of the Western powers in the region.Trump seems to ignore this historical relationship, pushing them to close ranks with the US as it confronts a China that they do not regard as a threat. The dilemma persists: those who resist the US overtures may lose access to US military support, intelligence cooperation, and training facilities.However, the action of switching political alliances which involves intricate considerations of national interests, economic and security concerns, is a calculated move to minimize any such adverse impact. ASEAN’s leaders are not blind to the challenges. They have been on the lookout for alternative markets (like BRICS). Almost all member countries, including Singapore, the only economy that runs a deficit trade balance with the US, are strategizing on how to improve their respective trade balances with the US. However, it is not in their DNA, nor likely their best interest, to retaliate.Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim of Malaysia has emerged as a key figure in attempting to steer ASEAN toward a unified response. As ASEAN Chair, to date, Malaysia has failed to bring about any result, partly because the tariffs target countries individually, which complicates any joint effort. While ASEAN can talk about unity all it wants, when it comes to action, every country is on its own. One by one, they have been falling in line to assume onerous tariff burdens. Collective effort is further undermined by policy fragmentation. Although the treaty organization has a larger population base than the EU with 27 members and a Custom Union, its economies are less integrated. Intra-EU trade is almost three times larger than ASEAN’s. This factor alone gives the EU a stronger retaliatory voice.The EU is likely to receive better treatment after agreeing to buy US weapons for Ukraine to fight Russia. The arm sales, worth billions of US dollars, will reduce the EU’s total deficit with the US. At the same time, the decision by NATO countries to hike defense expenditures to 5 percent annually means more business for America and further reduces the trade deficits over time.Compared with the EU, which has temporarily suspended countermeasures against Trump’s tariffs in the hope of getting a better deal before August 1, ASEAN doesn’t have the same economic, political, military, and cultural clout to retaliate. While the EU’s strength lies in its internal market cohesiveness, ASEAN’s biggest challenge is from within, quietly fracturing along strategic lines between countries leaning toward China and those aligning with the US. Such strategic fault lines can dilute its collective ability to act as a group even AS the member states muster the political will to act swiftly. Notwithstanding the fragile structural problem within ASEAN, the leaders have resigned to the fact that the Trump administration is not likely to change its mind on ASEAN’s (except for the Philippines) preference for China.As the member countries prioritize their economic survival over strategic alignment, as a group, they have refrained from retaliating, not because they agreed with Trump but because they fear his unpredictability could further damage the goodwill and civility they have established with the US before he became President.But despite early appeasement by a few member states, the overall coercive trade policy may backfire as the ASEAN member states’ economies become more integrated with the Chinese market. This will defeat the purpose of Trump’s policy of using tariffs to undermine Beijing. Trump is playing with economic fire, bullying the Asean countries into abandoning relationships with neighboring China that span thousands of years for the US, despite the current ongoing squabble over ownership of the South China Sea. The strategic, security, and political disagreements far outweigh mere trade statistics — and blunt economic threats will only harden ASEAN's instinct to hedge rather than to bandwagon with Washington.For ASEAN, true strategic strength lies not in choosing between the United States and China, but in maintaining a careful balance that preserves economic freedom, political autonomy, and regional stability. It is also a manifestation of sovereignty and pride. The rise of China and the decline of Pax Americana reflect a historical reality: “that all empires, no matter how powerful, eventually decline and fall”.China has long been trying to pull ASEAN closer through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), RCEP trade agreement, and bilateral investments. Tariffs from the U.S. would make ASEAN countries more dependent on China that provides access to a growing an alternative market, more investment and at the same time Southeast Asia's proximity to mainland China make the region a preferred China Plus One destination.Trump's tariffs on ASEAN have accelerated Southeast Asia’s pivot toward China and will weaken Washington’s position in the region without the latter firing a shot. Geopolitically, this means China’s influence in ASEAN will grow even faster, and US influence will shrink, wasting the efforts of the previous administration to shore up alliances in the region. Meanwhile, Beijing will present itself as the "responsible and steady partner” as it cements its primacy in Asia.B A Hamzah is former Director General of Maritime Institute of Malaysia (MIMA), a former Fellow at the Institute of Strategic and International Studies in Malaysia, and a regular contributor to Asia Sentinel on ASEAN affairs. The views are his own. He can be reached at bahamzah8@hotmail.com