MARTIN FACKLER2025年7月22日周一，日本首相石破茂和自民党其他领导人在东京，自民党在前一天的参议院选举中遭遇失败。 Jiji Press, via Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesThe surging popularity of new, right-wing political parties that handed Japan’s long-governing Liberal Democratic Party a humiliating election defeat is a sign of a growing generational gap, as younger voters embrace calls for lower taxes, restrictions on immigration and a break with the political status quo.日本长期执政的自民党在选举中遭遇耻辱性的失败，新的右翼日本政党人气飙升，凸显了日益扩大的代际鸿沟：年轻选民越来越支持降低税收、限制移民，以及打破现有政治格局的呼声。The defeat, which rendered the Liberal Democrats a minority in both houses of the Diet, the country’s Parliament, could herald the end of an era for the broad-tent conservative group that has been Japan’s dominant political force for 70 years. But while the party has faced would-be usurpers before, this time was different, because the challengers came from the nationalist right, which the Liberal Democrats had long controlled.这次失败导致自民党在国会两院均沦为少数派执政党，可能预示着这个70年来主导日本政治的大帐篷保守主义政党的时代即将结束。尽管该党过去也曾遭遇挑战，但这一次的情况不同——挑战来自民族主义右翼阵营，而这一领域长期以来一直由自民党掌控。The biggest winners on Sunday were two far-right parties that did not exist five years ago. While Japan has seen its share of flash-in-the-pan, anti-establishment upstarts in the past, the Democratic Party of the People and the more extreme Sanseito party seemed to make much broader inroads among younger voters, who were drawn by their pledges to lift stagnant wages, reduce the number of foreign workers and break the grip that older generations of voters have held on politics.周日选举的最大赢家是两个五年前尚不存在的极右政党。虽然日本过去也不乏昙花一现的反建制新贵，但国民民主党及其更极端的盟友参政党似乎在年轻选民中取得了更为广泛的突破。这些年轻选民被提高停滞不前的工资、减少外国工人以及打破老一代选民对政治掌控的承诺所吸引。“The populists’ appeals have found support among younger voters whose income has not grown or who feel uncomfortable seeing more foreigners,” said Harumi Arima, an independent political analyst. “Their disenchantment with the L.D.P. has spread online, outside traditional media.”“民粹主义者的诉求在那些收入没有增长或看到更多外国人感到不安的年轻选民中赢得了支持，”独立政治分析师有马晴海表示。“他们对自民党的失望已在传统媒体之外的网络上蔓延开来。”民粹主义的参政党创始人神谷宗幣本月竞选。The new parties’ gains have led many in Japan to wonder if the global wave of right-wing, anti-establishment political movements has finally reached their shores. After years of seeming insulated from outside political forces, many Japanese voters, particularly younger ones, have had enough of what they regard as a political order dominated by corporate and political vested interests and the country’s legions of retirees.新政党的崛起使得许多日本人不禁思考，席卷全球的右翼反建制政治运动的浪潮是否终于也登陆日本。在多年看似隔绝于外部政治力量之后，许多日本选民，尤其是年轻选民对当前的政治秩序感到厌倦。他们认为，这一政治秩序长期被企业和政界的既得利益集团以及数量庞大的退休人群所主导。However, the Liberal Democrats have weathered outpourings of voter discontent before, often by borrowing the policy ideas of their rivals, thus stealing their thunder. And this time around may be no different, many analysts say. The new nationalist parties differ from anti-establishment groups overseas, like President Trump’s “America First” movement, with their focus on generational discontent rooted in Japan’s domestic political and economic changes.不过，自民党以前也经历过选民不满情绪的大爆发，通常是通过借鉴竞争对手的政策理念来化解，进而反夺声势。许多分析人士表示，这次可能也并无不同。新的民族主义政党不同于海外的反建制团体，例如特朗普总统的“美国优先”运动，它们更关注植根于日本国内政治和经济变革的代际不满。The new nationalist parties have warned of unrestrained immigration and what they describe as excessive gender equality, but analysts say they have succeeded in large part because they tapped into the frustrations of working-age people living in a rapidly graying society.新的民族主义政党发出警告，要警惕不受限制的移民以及他们所谓的“过度性别平等”，但分析人士表示，这些党之所以成功，很大程度上是因为触及了生活在迅速老龄化社会中的劳动年龄人口的挫败感。The new parties have succeeded by giving voice to younger voters who feel they are burdened with taxes to pay for the retirement of their parents’ generation, while policies protecting special interests block them from more entrepreneurial efforts to improve their lives.新政党通过为年轻选民发声而取得成功，这些选民感到自己背负着为父母一代退休金埋单的税务负担，而保护既得利益的政策又阻碍了他们通过创业等方式改善自身生活的努力。For this reason, many analysts say Sunday’s parliamentary election results have left a new question hanging over Japan’s political landscape: Do these new parties represent a short-lived protest vote or a more long-lasting political realignment, driven by demographic pressures and frustration with a leadership class seen as out of touch with younger voters?因此，许多分析人士表示，周日的国会选举结果给日本政治格局留下了一个新的悬念：这些新政党究竟只是一次昙花一现的抗议性投票，还是在人口结构压力以及对与年轻选民脱节的领导层的不满驱动下，出现了更为持久的政治重组？与过去的反建制政党相比，新民族主义政党似乎在年轻选民中取得了更广泛的影响力。“Younger voters are looking for change agents at a time when the ripples from MAGA are spreading around the world,” said Jeff Kingston, a professor of modern Japanese politics and history at Temple University’s Tokyo campus. “But it takes more than a protest vote to become a national movement.”天普大学东京分校的日本近现代政治与历史教授杰夫·金士顿表示：“在‘让美国再次伟大’的余波席卷全球之际，年轻选民正在寻找变革的推动者。但要成为一场全国性运动，仅靠抗议性投票是不够的。”In the case of Sanseito, Mr. Trump’s Make America Great Again movement has been a direct influence. The party’s founder, Sohei Kamiya, a 47-year-old former army reservist who was once a Liberal Democrat, has said he would build a national network of supporters committed to the anti-immigration agenda that he calls “Japanese First.”就参政党而言，特朗普的“让美国再次伟大”运动对其产生了直接影响。该党创始人神谷宗幣是一名47岁的前陆军预备役人员，曾是自民党员，他表示将建立一个全国性的支持者网络，致力于推行他所称的“日本人优先”反移民议程。On Sunday, exit polls showed a clear generation gap. Among men and women under the age of 40, half reported voting for the two nationalist parties, according to a poll by Kyodo News. Another poll also found strong support among members of the so-called Ice Age generation, who entered the job market in the 1990s and early 2000s, when a stagnant economy offered only limited opportunities.周日的出口民调显示出明显的代际差距。共同社的调查显示，在40岁以下的男女选民中，有一半投票给了这两个民族主义政党。另一项调查还发现，所谓的“冰河期世代”（即20世纪90年代至21世纪初进入就业市场、因当时经济停滞导致机会有限的人群）对这些政党给予了强烈支持。Younger voters rejected not only the Liberal Democrats but also the biggest established liberal opposition group, the Constitutional Democratic Party, which has also backed policies popular with older voters. Among men and women over 60, the voting preferences flipped, with half casting their ballots for the two main established parties, according to the same exit poll.年轻选民不仅拒绝了自民党，还拒绝了最大的老牌自由派反对党立宪民主党，该党同样支持受老年选民欢迎的政策。同一份出口民调显示，60岁以上选民的投票倾向正相反，有一半人将选票投给了两个主要的老牌政党。But while the generational fissures may be here to stay, Mr. Arima and other political analysts expressed doubt that the new anti-establishment parties would continue to hold appeal.不过，尽管代际分歧可能会长期存在，有马等政治分析师对这些新兴反建制政党能否持续保持吸引力表示怀疑。Their emergence, the analysts said, was made possible by changes within the Liberal Democrats, who shifted toward a more moderate stance after the 2022 assassination of the party’s most powerful leader in modern times, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.分析人士们认为，这些政党的崛起得益于自民党的内部变化——2022年，自民党现代史上最有权势的领导人、前首相安倍晋三遇刺后，该党转向了更为温和的立场。周六，大选前夕，自民党在东京举行竞选活动。While right-wing sentiment took root early in Japan, with the spread of the so-called Net-Right on social media during the 2000s, it failed to grow into its own movement. Instead it gave its support to Mr. Abe, who dominated Japan’s political right while he served as the party’s and Japan’s leader from 2012 to 2020.右翼情绪早早就已经在日本扎根，21世纪最初十年，所谓的“网络右翼”在社交媒体上蔓延，然而这种情形并没有发展成独立的运动。相反，这个群体转而支持安倍晋三——2012年至2020年担任自民党领袖和日本首相期间，安倍主导了日本的政治右翼。“During the Abe era, the L.D.P. tamed and absorbed the far right,” Sayaka Oki, a professor of history at the University of Tokyo, told the Asahi Shimbun.“在安倍时代，自民党驯服并吸纳了极右翼势力，”东京大学历史学教授隐歧沙耶香（音）在接受《朝日新闻》采访时表示。Mr. Abe’s death opened the way for Mr. Kamiya of Sanseito and others to emerge, but the Liberal Democrats could try to reclaim that space by moving back to the right, analysts say. One way this could happen might be if a member of the party’s right wing replaced Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.分析人士称，安倍去世为参政党的神谷等人的崛起创造了机会，但自民党可能会通过向右翼靠拢来重新夺回这一空间。如果该党右翼成员接替石破茂首相，就有可能实现这一目标。For now, Mr. Ishiba appears intent on not letting that happen. In a news conference on Monday that was televised live nationally, he admitted that his party had suffered a historic defeat but pledged to stay on as prime minister, defying calls from within his party to step down.目前，石破茂似乎有意阻止这种情况发生。在周一的全国电视直播新闻发布会上，他承认自民党遭遇了历史性失败，但不顾党内要求他辞职的呼声，他承诺将继续担任首相。Some analysts said that any effort to replace Mr. Ishiba could also make it difficult for Japan to follow through on promises like one to double spending on national security. A change in leadership might lead Japan back into the political stasis of a decade ago, when a revolving door of prime ministers could accomplish little.一些分析人士表示，任何替换石破茂的企图都可能导致日本难以兑现诸如将国家安全支出增加一倍等承诺。领导层的变动可能会使日本回到十年前的政治僵局——当时首相如走马灯般更换，几乎一事无成。“During the Abe administration, the U.S. got used to a new Japan that could get stuff done,” said Jeffrey W. Hornung, an expert on Japan at the RAND research group in Washington. “Does an election defeat drag Japan back into its old norm of paralysis?”“安倍政府时期，美国已经习惯了一个能够有所作为的新日本，”华盛顿兰德公司的日本问题专家杰弗里·霍农表示，“选举失败会让日本重回过去的瘫痪常态吗？”Hisako Ueno和Kiuko Notoya自东京对本文有报道贡献。Martin Fackler是时报东京分社代理社长。翻译：晋其角点击查看本文英文版。