Gold Futures Trade Plan / July 21, 2025Gold FuturesCOMEX_DL:GC1!e_hysa00Overview This trade plan reflects a comprehensive view of gold futures (GC) going into the week of July 21, 2025. The analysis draws from current macroeconomic factors, positioning data, technical structure, and live order flow behavior. Every component has been evaluated to ensure the bias is not emotional or speculative but firmly evidence based. Macro Landscape • 10-Year TIPS real yield is firmly above 2.00% > historically a major headwind for gold. • The US Dollar Index (DXY) has formed a weekly reversal and is pushing for higher highs. A firming USD puts downward pressure on gold. • No current geopolitical or financial panic exists to justify a fear-based safe-haven bid. • Fed remains hawkish, with no indication of immediate easing. This sustains real yield elevation and removes policy-driven upside risk for gold. COT Report (as of July 15, 2025) • Funds (CTAs): Net long +213,115 — added +8,542 longs, cut -1,605 shorts. • Commercials: Net short -250,688 — added +16,448 shorts (heavy hedging). • Retail: Net long +37,573 — also increasing long exposure. → Interpretation: Market is heavily long. Commercials are unloading risk at these prices. High top risk. → When funds are this long and commercials are this short, it's a strong contrarian signal. → Fade setups tend to work best when commercials are defending structure (which we see via Bookmap). > Commercials are unloading gold to the euphoric buyers >Retail is joining long side = late to the party Funds are late, commercials are patient. If we break higher and fail, that’s my cue to fade like a shark Sources: FRED Real Yields: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII10 TradingView DXY: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-DXY/ FedWatch Tool: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html FED COT REPORT FOR COMMODITY EXCHANGE Positioning and Demand • Funds (CTAs) are net long +213k contracts >extremely crowded. • COT DATA: > Commercials added over +16k shorts, increasing their net short position to -250k. > Retail is also long > a classic late-entry positioning profile. • India imports hit a 14-month low in June. Demand is soft across jewelry and investment channels. • China's SGE shows stable but unremarkable volume. No surge in open interest or delivery volume. Sources: COT Data: https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm India Market Update: https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus SGE Reports: https://www.en.sge.com.cn/reports Technical Structure • Gold has been compressing between 3330–3375. The high-volume node sits at 3358, which is the point of control (POC). • Price has failed multiple times above 3370–3375, forming long upper wicks on the daily. • CVD diverging negatively against price action, suggesting exhaustion. • Volume has decreased on each attempted breakout. Order Flow Confirmation • Bookmap shows consistent absorption between 3365–3380. Buyers are hitting, but price doesn’t move — classic sign of passive selling. • CVD is rising while price is flat or turning > buyer aggression with no progress. • No strong delta follow-through into resistance; no real liquidity chasing upside. • Spoofing has been observed above 3372, which is often followed by trap reversals. Resources: Bookmap Platform: https://bookmap.com Execution Plan Macro-aligned swing trade. The plan is to fade into strength using confirmation from Bookmap and price structure. >Laddered Short Entry Strategy • First short: 3367.5 (light size, test absorption) • Second short: 3371.5 (main entry, absorption confirmed) • Optional add: 3374.5 (if spoof wall holds and delta fails again) • Stop Loss: 3385.5 (above absorption, above recent swing structure) → This stop is placed beyond a level of clear invalidation, not where typical retail stops sit. It's meant to protect from fakeouts but still give the trade room to develop. Targets • Target 1: 3348.0 (value area low and VWAP zone) • Target 2: 3332.5 (prior structural support, high-probability unwind level) Final Signal → Short GCQ25 at 3371.5 if price pushes into 3370+ and fails to advance on rising delta. → Stop at 3385.5, targeting 3348 and 3332. → Trade is valid only if absorption is visible on Bookmap and delta stalls near the highs. Probability: 92% short 8& invalidation, continuation higher