It’s a light week ahead in terms of economic events for the FX market. Monday begins slowly, with no significant data scheduled. On Tuesday, the focus will be on Australia’s monetary policy meeting minutes, which are expected to provide further insight into the surprise decision to hold rates. In the U.K., Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will speak before the Treasury Select Committee in London following the release of the Financial Stability Report. In the U.S., Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will deliver opening remarks at the Integrated Review of the Capital Framework for Large Banks Conference, hosted by the Fed in Washington, D.C. With the Fed’s blackout period starting this weekend ahead of the July 30 FOMC meeting, Powell is unlikely to comment on monetary policy, but markets may still pay close attention to his remarks. On Wednesday, the U.S. will release existing home sales data and Thursday will bring the release of flash services and manufacturing PMIs for Japan, the eurozone, the U.K., and the U.S. In addition, the U.S. will publish new home sales figures, while the eurozone will announce the latest ECB monetary policy decision. Finally, on Friday, Japan will release the Tokyo core CPI y/y, the U.K. will publish retail sales m/m, and in the U.S., attention will turn to durable goods orders m/m. In the U.S., the consensus for existing home sales for June is 4.01M vs. 4.03M prior. Existing home sales rose 0.8% in May to an annualized pace of 4.03 million units, ending a two-month decline. Single-family home sales increased by 1.1%, while multifamily sales fell by 2.7%. Despite the modest uptick, overall sales remained below pre-pandemic levels, constrained by high mortgage rates and ongoing affordability challenges. The median home price rose 1.3% year-over-year to $422,800. Wells Fargo expects a slight 0.3% decline in existing home sales for June, while new home sales are projected to rebound by 4.8%. At this week's meeting, the ECB is expected to keep the deposit rate unchanged at 2.0%. This decision is supported by June inflation data, which showed headline inflation at 2.0%, core inflation steady at 2.3%, and services inflation rising to 3.3%. Wells Fargo expects the ECB to deliver one final 25 bps rate cut by September, bringing the policy rate down to 1.75%. This would suggest that the easing cycle may not yet be complete. Uncertainty surrounding the potential for a 30% U.S. tariff on EU goods proposed by President Trump adds to the overall risk backdrop. However, it is unlikely to prompt any immediate action from the ECB. The consensus for Tokyo core CPI y/y is 3.0%, slightly down from the previous 3.1%. While food prices may have moderated, underlying inflationary pressures persist, particularly from services and processed food costs. Given that recent inflation readings have consistently exceeded the Bank of Japan’s projections, the upcoming data will be closely watched. A stronger-than-expected print would support the case for the BoJ to revise its FY2025 inflation forecast upward, reinforcing expectations that policy normalization remains a possibility. As for monetary policy, the BoJ is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.50% at the July meeting. Although a rate hike was previously projected for October, softer inflation momentum and ongoing global uncertainties could delay that move to late 2025 or even early 2026. The pace of normalization is expected to remain gradual, with inflation trends and incoming data shaping the timing of any future adjustments. In the U.S., the consensus for core durable goods orders m/m is 0.0%, down from the prior 0.5%, while headline durable goods orders m/m are expected to fall by 10.3%, following a 16.4% surge in May. According to analysts at Wells Fargo, May’s sharp increase was largely driven by a spike in civilian aircraft orders, fueled by the Boeing-Qatar Airways deal linked to President Trump’s regional visit. Outside of aerospace, there were also gains in defense, electronics, electrical equipment, and metals. However, when excluding transportation, the underlying trend remains weak. Core orders have moved no more than 0.5% in either direction since September 2024, with May posting exactly that figure. Looking ahead, the outlook for capital spending remains subdued. Persistent trade uncertainty, rising input costs, and sluggish growth expectations are prompting firms to pull back on hiring and investment. Wells Fargo forecasts an 11% decline in durable goods orders for June, with business equipment investment likely to contract in the second half of the year. Wish you all a profitable trading week. This article was written by Gina Constantin at investinglive.com.