Top analyst sends message on pending ugly earnings miss (plus one big beat)

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RegExp("[?&]notifications=1(&|#|$)");"desktop"===y&&i&&b.test(window.location.search)&&(i.checked=!0)};be("ybar-mod-notification",(function(e){var t={isUH3:"crunch"===e.getConfig().ytheme,notifContainer:document.getElementById("notification-container"),notifBadge:document.getElementById("notif-badge"),notifMenu:document.getElementById("ybarNotificationMenu"),notifMenuOpener:document.querySelector("#ybarNotificationMenu + label"),notifDropdown:document.getElementById("notifDropdownContainer"),tooltipContainer:document.querySelector(".".concat(Vn)),notifLabel:document.querySelector(".".concat($n))};t.notifDropdown&&ro(e,t)}))}()}};]]>Chuck JaffeWed, Jul 23, 2025, 6:47 PM 5 min readTop analyst sends message on pending ugly earnings miss (plus one big beat) originally appeared on TheStreet.Wall Street always punishes bad performers when quarterly results come around, but it seems as though earnings misses are really bringing out the worst in investors this time around.Just last week, the market action reinforced the idea that “good is not enough,” dropping Netflix by 5% last week despite the company raising its full-year guidance and beating its top and bottom lines.Likewise, big banks like Bank of America and JPMorgan suffered through muted gains when solid earnings and positive consumer news couldn’t overcome the disappointment of not delivering even more.💵💰 Don't miss the move: Subscribe to TheStreet's free daily newsletter 💵💰There’s a growing disconnect between the quality of performance a company delivers and Wall Street’s reaction to whether those numbers were enough. With the market back around record-high levels, strong results alone may not justify current levels.The trend is not unexpected. Before earnings season heated up, Annex Wealth Management Chief Economist Brian Jacobsen noted in one of his regular “Market Musing” posts that valuation should give investors pause right now.“Valuations are poor timing tools, but they do help gauge upside and downside risks,” Jacobsen wrote. “Considering where valuations are, as earnings season begins, it’s reasonable to expect that earnings misses could have a bigger market impact than positive surprises.”Market technicians are looking for earnings surprises.Image source: ShutterstockWith the stepped-up action around earnings season, the analysts at New Constructs dusted off a previously popular feature, looking at the companies that are most likely to miss earnings, as well as those that are poised for a big earnings beat.Related: S&P 500 rally causes a big valuation problemNew Constructs’ methodology brings together discounted cash-flow analysis and forensic accounting, working backwards from most analysts by digging into a company’s documents and the footnotes level and working up, rather than starting at the top-line and conducting the analysis only at a skin-deep level.As a result, New Constructs finds where the headline numbers mask a misleading situation. If that deception works in the favor of the investor, a stock is “attractive,” but if the numbers could mislead the investor into trouble, the stock is “dangerous.”The firm’s stock-picking routinely has been rated by SumZero at or near the top of multiple investment categories; SumZero is a buy-side community in which more than 15,000 professional portfolio managers compete for rankings.Terms and Privacy PolicyPrivacy & Cookie SettingsMore InfoS&P 5006,341.92 +32.30 (+0.51%)Dow 3044,897.36 +394.92 (+0.89%)Nasdaq20,943.51 +50.83 (+0.24%)Russell 20002,272.70 +23.94 (+1.06%)VIX15.48 -1.02 (-6.19%)Gold3,397.00 -46.70 (-1.36%)PortfolioSign in to access your portfolioSign inTop gainersABVX ABIVAX Société Anonyme 65.26 +55.26 (+551.50%)LBRT Liberty Energy Inc. 13.65 +2.40 (+21.33%)CALM Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. 122.78 +18.07 (+17.26%)LW Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. 57.26 +8.09 (+16.45%)VICR Vicor Corporation 52.56 +7.36 (+16.28%)Top losersFI Fiserv, Inc. 139.60 -26.38 (-15.89%)ENPH Enphase Energy, Inc. 36.13 -6.37 (-14.99%)TXN Texas Instruments Incorporated 189.32 -25.60 (-11.91%)MARA MARA Holdings, Inc. 17.60 -2.28 (-11.47%)OTIS Otis Worldwide Corporation 90.13 -10.86 (-10.75%)Most activeLCID Lucid Group, Inc. 3.0900 -0.0400 (-1.28%)NIO NIO Inc. 4.9750 -0.0350 (-0.70%)NVDA NVIDIA Corporation 169.18 +2.15 (+1.28%)MARA MARA Holdings, Inc. 17.60 -2.28 (-11.47%)WBD Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. 13.30 +0.44 (+3.46%)Earnings eventsTrending tickersGPRO GoPro, Inc. 1.6350 +0.2650 (+19.41%)DNUT Krispy Kreme, Inc. 4.2900 +0.1600 (+3.87%)ABVX ABIVAX Société Anonyme 65.29 +55.29 (+552.85%)GEV GE Vernova Inc. 624.06 +75.07 (+13.67%)HIMS Hims & Hers Health, Inc. 56.70 +6.69 (+13.37%)Top economic events