NordKern - XAUUSD InsightGoldOANDA:XAUUSDNordKernNordKern | Simplified Insight XAUUSD possible scenarios Gold saw some upside today, primarily driven by softer DXY and trade deadlines ahead. To be specific: 1. Softer U.S. Dollar (DXY) The U.S. Dollar Index fell ~0.1–0.2% today, making gold more attractive for international buyers Kitco confirms the decline in USDX, paired with weaker Treasury yields, is fueling bullion demand. 2. Cautious Market Ahead of Trade Deadlines Markets are bracing for the August 1 U.S. tariff deadline, especially involving the EU. Investors are positioning defensively, increasing safe-haven interest in gold. Heightened trade tensions and uncertainty including possible Trump-Xi talks boost demand for safe assets. 3. Falling Treasury Yields & Fed Policy Expectations The U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield has slipped (~4.37%), reducing gold’s opportunity cost and supporting its attractiveness. Market pricing shows increasing odds of a Fed rate cut at next week’s FOMC meeting, something analysts like Christopher Waller suggested. 4. Geopolitical & Trade Risk Premiums Escalating trade risk (tariffs looming) and geopolitical uncertainty are prompting safe-haven inflows into gold. India’s MCX mirror those sentiments: gold rose ~0.5% on local contracts amid global trade nerviness. To sum it up: Gold is rallying today primarily because of the softer dollar, lower yields, and elevated trade risks ahead of the August 1 tariff deadline—all of which reinforce its safe-haven allure. Trade Setup - Shorts; if we retest 3370s - We would primarily look to enter into lower risk buys on gold at more preferable levels such as 3370. After breaking to the upside from the consolidation area, a pullback and a retest to that area would not be out of the ordinary. Trade Setup - Buys; if we break above 3400 - In case of the dollar remaining soft, we can expect gold to continue its upside rally without any major pullbacks. In this case, we would be looking for the breaks of 3400 and continue to hold until around 3345s. Key Notes: - Softer Dollar - Possible retest of 3370s - Watch for potential breaks of 3400 This remains a tactically driven setup. Manage risk appropriately and stay alert for any renewed political developments.