DAVID PIERSON, BERRY WANG2025年7月22日将中国与欧洲及其他地区的国家连接起来的重庆航运码头。 Gilles Sabrié for The New York TimesHaving forced the Trump administration into a trade truce through economic pressure and strategic defiance, China now appears to be playing the same kind of hardball with Europe.中国通过经济压力和战略反抗迫使特朗普政府达成贸易休战，现在似乎正在对欧洲采取同样的强硬手法。It has retaliated against trade curbs, accused Europe of protectionism, slowed exports of critical minerals and further embraced Russia, with China’s top leader himself pledging support for Moscow just days before a summit of European Union leaders that China is scheduled to host this week.中国已对欧洲的贸易限制措施进行反击，指责其搞保护主义，中国还放慢了向欧盟出口关键矿产，并更紧密地拥抱俄罗斯，包括中国最高领导人在本周安排与欧盟领导人举行峰会的几天前承诺支持莫斯科。The moves are part of a tough posture that Beijing is taking in its trade and geopolitical disputes with Brussels. China wants Europe to lift heavy tariffs that it has imposed on Chinese electric vehicles and refrain from further restrictions on trade. E.U. leaders see Beijing as effectively supporting Russia in its war with Ukraine, and are also concerned that China is dumping artificially cheap products that could undermine local industries.这些做法是中国政府在贸易和地缘政治争端中对欧盟采取的强硬姿态的一部分。中国想让欧洲取消对中国电动汽车征收的高额关税，并避免采取进一步的贸易限制措施。欧盟领导人认为中国政府实质上在支持俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争，同时也担心中国正在把价格被人为压低的产品倾销到欧洲，可能给当地产业造成损害。Beijing has learned that it has leverage it can use against outside pressure. It stood up to the Trump administration’s punishing trade war by demonstrating how dependent global industry was on China for its supply of critical minerals. And Beijing likely assesses that it is in a stronger position because Western unity is fracturing, analysts say, with President Trump’s “America First” foreign policy weakening the historical bonds between Europe and the United States.中国政府已认识到自己拥有对抗外部压力的筹码。它通过展示全球工业如何依赖中国的关键矿产供应，顶住了特朗普政府的惩罚性贸易战。分析人士指出，中国政府可能评估后认为自己处于更有利的地位，因为西方的团结正在瓦解，特朗普总统的“美国优先”外交政策正在削弱欧洲与美国的历史纽带。“Beijing perceives that the global order is in flux,” said Simona Grano, a China expert at the University of Zurich. “From its perspective, the United States is overstretched and preoccupied with multiple conflicts around the world and domestic polarization.”“中国政府认为全球秩序正在不断变化，”苏黎世大学的中国问题专家高喜明(Simona Grano)说。“从中国的角度来看，美国是在勉强维持，它已卷入世界各地的多个冲突中，同时在国内面临两极分化问题。”“And with signs of division or fatigue within the trans-Atlantic alliance, the Chinese leadership sees more room to assert its interests, not least in trade, tech and security,” Ms. Grano said.“在跨大西洋联盟内部出现分裂或疲态迹象的时候，中国领导层看到了更多维护自身利益主张的空间，尤其是在贸易、技术以及国家安全方面，”高喜明说。That calculation has been evident in China’s approach to the summit talks on Thursday, which will include its top leader, Xi Jinping, and Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, as well as other senior European leaders. The two sides will be commemorating 50 years of diplomatic ties — the type of anniversary that ordinarily would be a chance for Beijing to showcase its partnerships.这个权衡在中国处理周四峰会谈判的态度上已显而易见，中国最高领导人习近平、欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩，以及其他欧盟高层领导人将出席峰会。举行峰会是为了庆祝中国和欧盟建立外交关系50周年，这种纪念日在正常情况下本会是中国政府展示其伙伴关系的机会。中国最高领导人习近平计划周四在北京与欧洲领导人举行会晤。Yet each detail of the meeting appears to underscore China’s view of the power dynamic. The summit is being held in Beijing even though it was Brussels’s turn to host the rotating event. The meeting will only last one day, according to the European Union, despite having been billed earlier as a two-day affair. Expectations for any concrete results from the summit are low.然而，峰会的每个细节似乎都凸显了中国对权力格局的看法。峰会将在北京举行，尽管本次轮值主办方本应是布鲁塞尔。据欧盟的说法，此次峰会的会期只有一天，尽管早些时候计划的是会晤两天。外界对峰会取得具体成果的预期不高。The 27-nation European bloc is caught between wanting to cut a trade deal with the United States, which is putting pressure on the region to commit to taking a harder line on China, and the need to maintain stable ties with China.有27个成员国的欧盟陷入了两难境地：它一方面想与美国达成贸易协议（美国正向欧盟施压，要求其承诺对中国采取更强硬的立场），另一方面需要与中国保持稳定的关系。But Brussels has grown more confrontational with Beijing in recent years about a massive trade imbalance that amounted to over $350 billion last year, as well as Beijing’s alignment with Russia.但近年来，由于双方之间巨大的贸易逆差（去年的逆差超过了3500亿美元），加上中国政府与俄罗斯结盟，欧盟与中国的关系已变得更具对抗性。In a speech this month in the European Parliament, Ms. von der Leyen accused China of “flooding global markets with cheap, subsidized goods, to wipe out competitors,” and of discriminating against European companies doing business in China. She also warned that China’s support for Moscow in its war with Ukraine was creating instability in Europe.冯德莱恩本月在欧洲议会发表讲话时指责中国“向全球市场大量投放廉价的、得到政府补贴的商品，以消灭竞争对手”，并指责中国歧视在华开展业务的欧洲企业。她还警告，中国在俄乌战争中支持俄罗斯的做法正在欧洲制造不稳定性。She said she planned to raise these concerns with Chinese officials at the meeting in Beijing. China is unlikely to be accommodating of such criticisms at the summit, if its recent muscle flexing is any indication.她表示，计划在北京的峰会上向中国官员提出这些担忧。但若参照中国近期的强硬姿态，它不太可能在峰会上容忍这种批评。Mao Ning, a spokeswoman for China’s foreign ministry, fired back at Ms. von der Leyen, saying it was the European Union’s “mind-set” that needed “rebalancing,” not China’s trade relationship with Europe.中国外交部发言人毛宁反驳了冯德莱恩的说法，称需要“再平衡”的是欧盟的“心态”，而不是中欧经贸关系。Earlier this year, China slowed exports of rare earth minerals to Europe, sounding alarms at high-tech firms across Europe and triggering a temporary shutdown of production lines at European auto parts manufacturers. And this month, China hit back at European Union curbs on government purchases of Chinese medical devices by imposing similar government procurement restrictions on European medical equipment.今年早些时候，中国放缓了对欧洲的稀土矿产出口，这在欧洲各地的高科技企业中敲响了警钟，并一度导致部分欧洲汽车零部件制造商的生产线暂时停工。本月，中国对欧盟限制欧洲政府采购中国医疗器械的做法采取了反制措施，对欧洲的医疗设备实施了类似的采购限制。欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩本月指责中国“向全球市场大量投放廉价的、得到政府补贴的商品，以消灭竞争对手”。Despite its combative stance, Beijing cannot afford to push Europe too far. China needs European markets to absorb the glut of electric vehicles, batteries and solar panels its factories are making. Domestically, huge price wars have shrunk profits, prompting even Mr. Xi and other leaders to warn companies against engaging in “disorderly and low-price competition.” And Europe’s importance has only grown as the Trump administration tries to close off other markets to China.尽管采取了对抗的态度，但中国政府承担不起过度紧逼欧洲的后果。中国需要欧洲的市场来消化国内工厂生产的过剩的电动汽车、电池以及太阳能电池板等产品。国内激烈的价格战压低了利润空间，甚至促使习近平本人以及其他领导人警告企业不要搞“无序低价竞争”。随着特朗普政府试图让其他国家向中国关闭市场，欧洲的重要性有增无减。“Europe remains an indispensable economic partner for China. But if Beijing overplays its hand, it could find itself more isolated,” Ms. Grano said.“欧洲仍是中国必不可少的经济伙伴。但如果中国政府错估形势的话，可能面临更严峻的孤立局面，”高喜明说。Still, China has remained defiant when it comes to its close relationship with Russia — which Beijing considers an invaluable partner in counterbalancing the West. Europe has long complained that Beijing’s purchases of Russian oil and its supplying of dual-use technologies has enabled the Kremlin to prolong its war in Ukraine.中国在维持与俄罗斯的紧密关系方面仍持强硬立场——它将俄罗斯视为制衡西方的宝贵伙伴。欧洲长期抱怨，中国购买俄罗斯的石油，向俄罗斯提供军民两用技术，使得克里姆林宫得以延长其乌克兰战争。China claims neutrality over the conflict, a position that has been met with deep skepticism in the West, in part because of the closeness of China and Russia. Mr. Xi called for Beijing and Moscow to “deepen” their ties and “safeguard” their “security interests” when he met Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, in Beijing last week.中国声称在俄乌战争中保持中立，但西方对这种说法表示高度怀疑，部分原因是中国与俄罗斯关系密切。习近平上周在北京会见俄罗斯外长谢尔盖·拉夫罗夫时，呼吁双方“深入推进”伙伴关系，“维护好两国”的“安全利益”。And earlier this month, China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, privately told European Union officials in Brussels that it was not in Beijing’s interests for the war to end because it might shift U.S. attention toward Asia, according to a European official briefed on the talks, who spoke to The New York Times on condition of anonymity to share details of remarks made in a closed-door meeting. Mr. Wang’s remarks were first reported by the South China Morning Post.据一名了解情况的欧洲官员透露，本月早些时候，中国最高外交官王毅在布鲁塞尔对欧盟官员私下说，结束俄乌战争不符合北京的利益，因为那可能会让美国把注意力转向亚洲。该官员向《纽约时报》讲述情况时要求不具名，因为分享的是闭门会议上的谈话细节。《南华早报》最早报道了王毅的说法。China has not commented on what Mr. Wang reportedly said.中国未对王毅的相关报道置评。But Victor Gao, a former Chinese diplomat and vice president of the Center for China and Globalization, a Beijing-based think tank, argued that the assertion attributed to Mr. Wang did not make sense because China believes the United States is able to project its influence in both Asia and over the fate of Ukraine at the same time.但曾任中国外交官、现任北京的全球化智库副主任的高志凯表示，没有理由认为王毅会那样说，因为中国相信美国完全有能力在亚洲发挥影响力，同时干预乌克兰局势的发展。俄罗斯无人机袭击了乌克兰敖德萨后，消防员在现场救火，摄于本月。欧洲领导人说，中国一直在帮助俄罗斯延长其打击乌克兰的行动。Mr. Gao was dismissive of European criticisms of China’s relationship with Russia, saying that the region should essentially mind its own business and focus on improving the lives of its people.高志凯对欧洲批评中俄关系的言论不以为然，表示欧洲还是应该管好自己的事，把注意力放在改善欧洲人民的生活上。“From the Chinese perspective, they are not qualified as a geopolitical rival,” he said. “They think too much of themselves.”“从中国的角度来看，他们没资格成为地缘政治对手，”他说。“他们未免自视过高。”China’s strategy toward Europe is essentially to divide and conquer. It saw the European Union as hawkish and sought to minimize the impact of its policies while courting Europe’s leading businesses, namely from Germany and France, Mr. Gao said.中国在欧洲的战略本质上是分而治之。中国把欧盟的立场视为鹰派，试图将欧盟政策的影响最小化，同时讨好欧洲的主要企业，尤其是德法企业，高志凯说。Hopes that Beijing will ever help Europe pressure the Kremlin to end its war have “faded away,” said Philippe Le Corre, a senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis, who is no more optimistic that Brussels and Beijing will compromise on trade.对中国政府会帮助欧洲向克里姆林宫施压以结束俄乌战争的希望已经“破灭”，亚洲协会政策研究所中国分析中心的高级研究员陆克(Philippe Le Corre)说，他对欧盟和中国在贸易问题上妥协也不抱任何乐观态度。“There is no trust between the two sides,” he said.“双方之间没有信任，”他说。Jeanna Smialek自布鲁塞尔、Zunaira Saieed自马来西亚吉隆坡对本文有报道贡献。David Pierson报道中国外交政策和中国与世界的经济与文化交互。他从事新闻工作已超过20年。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。