Trend-Anomaly Analysis of U.S. Federal Budget Balance

Wait 5 sec.

[This article was first published on DataGeeek, and kindly contributed to R-bloggers]. (You can report issue about the content on this page here)Want to share your content on R-bloggers? click here if you have a blog, or here if you don't.According to the Trend-Anomaly chart, after the liberation day tariffs, the U.S. Federal Budget Balance has recovered from the extremely high level deficit.Source code:library(tidyverse)library(tidyquant)library(timetk)#U.S. Federal Budget Balancedf_us_balance % as_tibble() %>% janitor::clean_names() %>% #removing parentheses and the text within mutate(release_date = str_remove(release_date, " \\(.*\\)"), actual = str_remove(actual, "B")) %>% mutate(release_date = parse_date(release_date, "%b %d, %Y")) %>% mutate(release_date = floor_date(release_date, "month") %m-% months(1), actual = as.numeric(actual)) %>% select(date = release_date, balance = actual) %>% drop_na()#Anomaly Plotdf_us_balance %>% drop_na() %>% anomalize(date, balance) %>% plot_anomalies(date, .line_size = 1, .line_type = 1, .interactive = FALSE, .title = "Trend-Anomaly ChartU.S. Federal Budget Balance") + geom_line(size = 0.2) + geom_vline(xintercept = as.Date("2025-04-02"), size = 1.2, linetype= "dashed", color = "darkorange") + scale_y_continuous(labels = scales::label_currency(suffix = "B")) + scale_x_date(expand = expansion(mult = c(.1, .1)), labels = scales::label_date("%Y")) + labs(subtitle = "Liberation Day Tariffs") + theme_minimal(base_family = "Roboto Slab", base_size = 15) + theme(legend.position = "none", panel.grid = element_blank(), axis.text = element_text(face = "bold"), #axis.text.x = element_text(angle = 60, hjust = 1, vjust = 1), plot.background = element_rect(fill = "azure", color = "azure"), panel.grid.major.x = element_line(linetype = "dashed", color = "gray"), panel.grid.major.y = element_line(linetype = "dashed", color = "gray"), plot.subtitle = ggtext::element_markdown(face = "bold", hjust = 0.5), plot.title = ggtext::element_markdown(face = "bold", hjust = 0.5))To leave a comment for the author, please follow the link and comment on their blog: DataGeeek.R-bloggers.com offers daily e-mail updates about R news and tutorials about learning R and many other topics. Click here if you're looking to post or find an R/data-science job.Want to share your content on R-bloggers? click here if you have a blog, or here if you don't.Continue reading: Trend-Anomaly Analysis of U.S. Federal Budget Balance