may1985Listen below or on the go on Apple Podcasts and SpotifyClaims for jobless benefits hit lowest level since April. (0:15) American Airlines slumps on warning. (1:48) Trump considered breaking up Nvidia but found it ‘not easy.’ (3:07)This is an abridged transcript of the podcast:Our top story so far, sticking with our summer movie theme, just like Jason Voorhees, the job market just keeps coming back when after everyone declares it dead.Weekly initial jobless claims posted another unexpected drop, falling to their lowest level since April.Claims declined by 4,000 to 217,000 from 221,000 in the prior week, and lower than the 227,000.That’s the fourth week in a row the number of people filing for unemployment benefits either unexpectedly declined or was weaker than consensus. And it indicates the labor market isn't deteriorating much, giving the Federal Reserve the ability to keep rates on hold as it assesses the effect of tariffs on inflation.Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, says: "This is a frozen labor market. The good news is layoffs are not picking up. New unemployment claims ticked down last week and are staying at a low level this summer. But it is also not easy to find a job right now outside of health care, education and law enforcement."The four-week moving average of 224,500 was a decrease of 5,000 from the prior week's average of 229,500. Continuing claims increased to 1.955 million from 1.951 million, lower than the vs. 1.96 million forecast.Pantheon Macro economist Samuel Tombs argues that auto shutdowns "distort the picture" and the labor market is "likely still loosening."But he adds, "Admittedly, underlying claims also seem to have dipped lately, at least compared to the recent peak in early June."Among active stocks, American Airlines (AAL) is slumping as expectations for continued macro weakness led the carrier to project a wider-than-expected loss for both the current quarter and full year.“Based on current booked revenue, expectations of future demand trends, and fuel price,” American expects to lose between $0.10 and $0.60 per share on an adjusted basis in the third quarter, much worse than the consensus estimate for a loss of just $0.01. For FY25, the carrier expects to report a loss of $0.20 to a profit of $0.80 per share, with the midpoint of $0.30 per share below $0.76 estimates.Dow (DOW) is tumbling in premarket trading after the chemicals giant reported a steep second-quarter loss, deteriorating margins and a surprise dividend cut. That highlighted growing pressure from persistent global demand weakness and intensifying trade tensions.The company slashed its dividend in half to $0.35 per share, citing a need to “maintain a balanced capital allocation framework” during what it called a “lower-for-longer earnings environment.”And Honeywell (HON) is struggling, as the industrial reported contracting margins and sluggish performance in key automation segments for the second quarter.It boosted the outlook, but segment margin across the company slipped 10 basis points to 22.9%, and operating margin narrowed by 30 basis points to 20.4%. That raised questions about cost containment and pricing power amid continued inflation and acquisition integration costs.In other news of note, President Donald Trump said he once considered breaking up Nvidia (NVDA) to increase competition in the AI chip market, before realizing “it’s not easy in that business.”“I said, ‘Look, we’ll break this guy up,’ before I learned the facts here,” Trump said at an AI summit in Washington, noting that aides had informed him the move would be “very hard” given Nvidia’s substantial lead over competitors.“I figured we could go in, and we could sort of break them up a little bit, get them a little competition, and I found out it’s not easy in that business,” he added.The DOJ launched an antitrust probe into Nvidia in 2024.And in the Wall Street Research Corner, Deutsche Bank says removing Fed Chairman Jay Powell from his position would provide minimal savings on Treasury debt costs while potentially causing counterproductive consequences.Chief U.S. economist Matthew Luzzetti extrapolated yield curve movements following recent reports that Trump could soon fire Powell, and they indicated that any benefits from lower short-term rates would be largely offset by higher long-term yields.His analysis revealed that if Powell was removed, 2-year Treasury yields (US2Y) would decline by 32 basis points while longer-term yields would rise significantly – with 10-year (US10Y) and 30-year yields (US30Y) increasing by 31 and 70 basis points, respectively.This twist steepening of the yield curve would create countervailing pressures on debt service costs, Luzzetti said.Through detailed modeling combining implied yield curve changes with Treasury issuance forecasts, he determined that cumulative savings through 2027 would amount to only $12 billion under the baseline issuance strategy. Even with a delayed coupon issuance strategy that skews more toward front-end securities, savings would increase by a mere $3 billion.The analysis also examined whether more dramatic rate cuts – closer to Trump’s cited target of about 1% – would meaningfully change the outcome. While more significant cuts could potentially generate cumulative debt service cost savings of about $78 billion through 2027 under favorable assumptions, Luzzetti cautioned this would depend heavily on market response.