Toward the end of last week, USDCAD tested its 100-day moving average near 1.37631 (see post from earlier this week). That technical floor provided support, helping to push the pair higher into the weekend, where it closed near the highs for the week.This week began with some downside pressure. On the 4-hour chart, the price twice tested its rising 200-bar moving average at 1.37967 before finding buyers and turning higher. The rebound carried the pair back above the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.3818, shifting near-term momentum back in favor of the bulls. Holding both the 200-day MA and the 200-bar MA on the 4-hour chart has laid a stronger technical foundation for an upside bias.Even so, the rally has stalled short of key upside targets. The highs this week failed to reach the August 1 swing high at 1.3878, the swing area between 1.3891–1.3904, and the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the March high at 1.39235. That retracement level also lines up with the August 22 high, making it a critical barrier for buyers to overcome.Looking ahead, if USDCAD can continue to trade above its key moving averages, the upside bias remains intact. However, to build greater conviction, buyers will need to push through the 38.2% retracement at 1.39235. A move above that level would suggest further upside potential and begin to put sellers on the defensive, threatening the broader bearish control that has been in place since the February peak. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.