GBP/USD Base Case for the Week Ahead (Structural View)British Pound/US DollarFX:GBPUSDPointBreak42The path of least resistance is eventually lower for Cable. Using short-term strength (e.g., from hot UK data or a weak Dollar) as opportunities to establish or add to strategic short positions for a major move lower. For This Week: Be agile. Recognise that price action will be a battle between: Short-Term Sterling Longs: Betting on the carry trade and a weak dollar. Long-Term Sterling Shorts: Betting on the UK's fundamental decay.. Key Levels remain: 1.400 demand and 1.500 to 1.600 for supply. With 1.725 and above for strategic shorts. A break below 1.400 would signal the institutional shorts have already built their book. Base case is more distribution above 1.500 and bounce from 1.400 suggests the carry trade is still in play for a little while longer.