September calls: Oil and Platinum outlook

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The most anticipated release of the week— the CPI report — confirmed that inflation is still above the Fed’s 2% target.However, the data didn’t show any acceleration, which gave the market somecomfort. At the same time, the jobless claims number jumped to the highestlevel in nearly four years. That move was enough for traders to start bettingmore aggressively on a rate cut already next week, as the Fed may try tobalance out the rapid slowdown in the labor market.The reaction in markets was immediate:Treasuries rallied, with the 10-year yield briefly dipping below 4%. US stocksstaged a broad advance — all major benchmarks renewed record highs, while smallcaps surged 1.8%. Gold once again made history, surpassing itsinflation-adjusted peak from 1980. Meanwhile, energy shares corrected alongsideoil prices. After hours, Adobe Inc. published a strong outlook, supporting thetech sector.The bigger picture is that the coolinglabor market has clearly shifted expectations toward a more aggressive pace ofeasing. Jerome Powell already signaled such a possibility during his JacksonHole speech last month, and the latest data confirmed the hiring slowdown hasstretched into August.Gold had slowed down the pace, while previousmetals rebounded - Platinum and Silver have rebounded after Gold. Energymarkets consolidated, which is normal for the transition period between theinjection and withdrawal period for Crude oil.Crude oilGlobal oil prices are under pressure,with Brent expected to decline significantly in the coming months. Forecastspoint to a slide from $68/b in August toward $59/b on average in Q4 2025, andeven closer to $50/b in early 2026. The main driver is the rapid inventorybuild, with OPEC+ and other producers boosting supply by more than 2 millionbarrels per day.The recent announcement from OPEC+ toincrease production further in October only strengthens this bearish outlook.That said, such low prices are likely unsustainable — if Brent remains near$50/b, supply cuts from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers may follow later in2026, potentially stabilizing the market.Crude oilWe’ll start our review with Crude oil: theprice consolidates around the dynamic resistance area of $63-64, and may try toretest it again before starting another downswing. The sentiment for Crude oilin particular and for energy assets in general remains muted (though, stocks ofthe energy sector display modest gains).According to supply/demand estimation from eia.gov, pressurefor Crude oil futures will increase in the fourth quarter of 2025, so thesentiment remains bearish, which is also confirmed by the price action. PlatinumPlatinum is positioned near the dynamicsupport area and may climb higher as rotation in the metals market continues.Platinum moved toward $1,410/oz, the highestthis month, supported by persistent supply deficits. The World PlatinumInvestment Council projects a structural shortfall of about 850 koz in 2025,with supply near a five-year low. Despite elevated prices, output is unlikelyto recover soon. While industrial demand faces pressure from the globalslowdown, investment and jewelry demand—especially in China—remains strong.Platinum also looks attractive versus gold, with Fed rate-cut expectations, aweaker dollar, and geopolitical tensions adding further support.This article was written by Stanislav Bernukhov, Senior Trading Content Specialist. This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.