EURUSD – Wave Analysis OutlookEUR/USDOANDA:EURUSDsaravanarmEURUSD is trading near 1.1765, showing a layered corrective structure. Key points and trade implications are summarized below. Structure – Primary Read (Blue W–X–Y) Off the lows, price is in a multi-leg corrective advance, forming a blue W–X–Y sequence. The current push higher is likely the X wave completing before a larger decline. Key Fibonacci levels for the X top: –0.236 = 1.1808, 1.000 = 1.1915, –0.618 = 1.1936. Momentum: RSI 4H ≈ 69–70, signaling short-term overbought conditions. Alternate X-wave Detail – Flat vs Running Flat Depending on the Fed rate: X could be a regular flat or a running flat. Strong Fed reaction may extend X slightly above the Fibonacci cluster before reversal; muted/dovish reaction likely caps near the cluster. Price Path Primary path: rally into 1.1808–1.1936, exhaustion/rejection, then drop into the Y leg. X-wave can show choppy swings (triangle/flat alternation) before the final top. Invalidation: sustained break above ~1.1936 shifts outlook to bullish. Trade Triggers Bearish triggers: rejection at 1.1808–1.1936, bearish engulfing candle, failure to hold –0.236 (1.1808), or 4H RSI divergence. Secondary confirmation: break of short-term rising support trendline. Catalyst: Fed decision. Trade only after technical confirmation, not headline. Targets After confirmed rejection, expect multi-leg downside to 1.14–1.13. Interim supports: 1.165–1.155 for partial reactions. Invalidation & Bullish Scenario Invalidation: 4H/daily close above ~1.195 negates the bearish count → reassess for higher targets or extended X-wave. Risk & Execution Notes Wait for technical confirmation before shorting. Place stops above 1.195 cluster if shorting. Watch for RSI and price divergences for early top clues. 👉 Plan (Bias) : Short-bias: look for rejection from 1.1808–1.1936 or break of short-term support. Primary downside target: 1.14–1.13. Invalidation: sustained break above ~1.195. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This outlook is my personal wave analysis and shared for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Trading involves risk — always do your own research and manage risk carefully.