Germany 40 Index – Range Trade or Something More?German 40 IndexPEPPERSTONE:GER40PepperstoneIt has been a nervy week for the Germany 40 index as it has struggled for direction ahead of today’s ECB rate decision, which is due at 1315 BST, and then the press conference, led by ECB President Lagarde, which starts at 1345 BST. While general sentiment has been boosted by US inflation data (PPI) supportive of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week, helping to lift the Germany 40 up to a weekly high of 23887 (Wed), issues related to Ukraine, including a violation of Polish airspace by a Russian drone leading to it being shot down, and the start of discussions between the US and EU regarding the potential for new tariffs on China and India, two big export markets for German companies, for their continued purchases of Russian energy, have weighed on rallies, which resulted in lows being seen at 23582 this morning (0700 BST). Now, looking forward, Germany 40 traders may be focused on the ECB who are fully expected to keep interest rates unchanged, which could shift the focus for volatility to what Madame Lagarde says regarding the potential for one more 25bps (0.25%) rate cut in December, economic growth, the outlook for global trade and the sustainability of European government debt, particularly in France. Any surprises here, combined with the US CPI release at 1330 BST could decide where the Germany 40 moves into the weekend, ensuring that monitoring the technical outlook could also be helpful for traders. Technical Update: Range Trade or Something More? Since early July, when the Germany 40 index hit its all-time high of 24639 on July 9th, it hasn’t shown a clear upward or downward trend. As shown on the chart below, prices have mostly moved sideways, staying between the resistance level at 24639 and the support level at 23378, which was the low on August 1st. It is impossible to say when this type of sideways price movement will end. A strong close above the resistance level or below the support level would suggest that prices may start moving more steadily in the direction of the break. That said, with recent price weakness and a decline toward the August 1st low of 23378, traders may be wondering whether this could lead to a break lower from the sideways range, or if support will hold again, keeping the range intact. So, let’s look at what may be the key support and resistance levels to watch Potential Support Levels: One could argue that the August 1st low of 23378 is the first key support to watch. If prices close below this level, it could signal a more extended phase of weakness, with the next potential support being 23013, which is the low from June 19th. While there is no guarantee of further weakness, a close below 23013 could trigger a deeper decline toward 22420, which marks the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the price strength from April 7th to July 9th, possibly further. Possible Resistance Levels: While the July 9th high of 24639 remains the key resistance level marking the upper boundary of the current sideways range, if the August 1st low of 23378 continues to hold and sees a rebound, traders may want to watch for earlier resistance levels that could come into play before opening possibilities of moves toward the top of the range. As shown in the chart above, the Bollinger mid-average is currently declining and sits at 24006. This level may act as the immediate resistance. If prices manage to close above 24006 in coming sessions, it could open the door for a retest of the July 9th high at 24639. The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.