The first step towards 5k - ETH weekly update Sep 15 - 21thEthereum / US DollarBINANCE:ETHUSDPhillipklhDear investors and traders, Ethereum is currently in the second wave of the minute cycle within the larger third wave unfolding in the minor cycle.Zooming into the fractal structure of the mentioned second wave, we can easily recognize the double three pattern as shown on the chart. My primary expactation therefore is a combination of a flat structure as a minuette wave w and a following zig zag a minuette wave y. I have chosen this scenario, because it's typical for altcoins to retrace their wave two a bit deeper then assets do normally. Also, the flat structure hasn't corrected this second wave too far, making a larger pullback likely. The zig zag probably made his subminuette wave a and should retrace now to levels of around 4.6k. The alternative scenario would be, that this second wave is already completed and with that we would be looking forward to 5k. For the alternative scenario to be completed, we need ETH to climb higher than the previous high of the minuette wave x. Moving on to the liquidity analysis, we can see why this is my primary scenario: A massive amount of liquidity sitting just above the with the red line shown low of the minor wave two. I think we are going to drop again in the direction of this liquidity, but I hope it is going to melt down as people fear to get liquidated. The drawn in price target surely isn't where the liquidity sits, but it's where most fibonacci levels come together. The Orderbook is relatively empty in nearer space, but there is a large amount of short orders sitting at 5k. Derivative data shows us turbulent funding rates because of people trying to catch this drop with large leverage market orders and getting liquidated, making the funding rate apparently to come back, maybe because they fear to loose more money now. Open interest stagnates, which is on the one hand positive because there are no more short positions adding up but this also means on the other hand that there are no long positions coming in. One thing I also noted in relation to people trying to catch the drop and burning themselves is that the liquidations are declining, which is indicating the leverage is decreasing. Coming to exchange flows, the exchanges currently record an inflow of ethereum meaning that people are probably moving their coins from wallets to the exchange to sell them, which is a bearish signal. Also notable is that the exchange reserve is increasing, also indicating that people sell their ethereum. The seasonality of ethereum shows us that the current Q3 was doing exceptionally well for ethereum and looking forward Q4 is also going to be green with a probability of 60%. September in the past was rather bearish then bullish, flipping the probabilities to a 40% probability to get a positive result. Nonetheless, the average return of September is 7%, which sparks hope. Looking to Blackrock and other whales and entities, we can clearly see that Blackrock sold a part of it's ethereum (10k ETH) just slightly before the top and not buying again till now indicating the bottom is not in yet. The ETFs is still getting inflows, showing institutions accumulating ethereum. All in all I am long and I think that the anticipated lows are optimal prices to establish swing long positions. Crucial for a impulsive move and the transition from a minute wave two to a minute wave 3 is the decline of liquidity at the low of the minor wave two.