BTC Elliott wave analysis 9/16 /2025Bitcoin / US DollarCOINBASE:BTCUSDjirapattinnIs Bitcoin’s Cycle Ending, or Just Another Correction? BTC made a new all-time high last month, followed by significant selling pressure. This raises the question: Has the BTC cycle ended, or is this just another corrective wave before another push higher? In my view, BTC has already completed its cycle since the bear market ended in November 2022, based on the following factors: 1. Wave Structure Suggests Completion of Wave 5 From my primary scenario, the 5-wave cycle beginning after the November 2022 bear market is as follows: Cycle Wave I: Nov 21, 2022 – Apr 14, 2023 Cycle Wave II: Apr 14, 2023 – Sep 11, 2023 Cycle Wave III: Sep 11, 2023 – Jan 20, 2025 Cycle Wave IV: Jan 20, 2025 – Apr 9, 2025 Cycle Wave V: Apr 9, 2025 – Aug 14, 2025 Within Cycle Wave V, we can clearly see wave 1 and wave 3 of the initial impulse, followed by a correction (wave 4), and then a final 5-wave sequence. This last push shows signs of exhaustion: although wave ④ (part of wave 5) lasted nearly a month, the market struggled to achieve new highs. This behavior suggests that buying pressure is exhausted and Cycle Wave V may have ended. 2. Post-High Wave Structure The decline after BTC’s all-time high could be interpreted as the start of a new impulse down, or as part of a complex corrective structure such as WXY or WXYXZ. We need further confirmation, but one thing is clear: after the upward correction completes, another downward wave should follow, either to complete the correction or as wave 3 of a larger bearish impulse. Micro Analysis Based on my Elliott Wave count, it seems BTC has completed wave II or wave b. This is confirmed not only by Gann fan resistance, but also by the divergence on the abrupt wave 5 in the 4-hour chart, which was followed by a strong downward move. This implies BTC has already entered wave III, or has at least completed its correction. If this current impulse is indeed wave 3 of a larger downtrend, the target for wave V would be around $81,000, supported by a Crab harmonic pattern projection.