FundamentalOverviewThe USD came under renewedpressure last Thursday following an in-line US CPI report and surprisingly weak initial jobless claims. The jobless claims data stole theshow as initial claims jumped to a new cycle high and the highest level since2021. On further analysis, theclaims data might have been just a blip as it was negatively skewed by an unusuallylarge spike in Texas. Nevertheless, the data kept the weakening labour marketnarrative intact and therefore solidified the expectations for three rate cutsby year-end. Overall, if one zooms out,the US dollar has been mostly rangebound even though the dovish bets on the Fedkept weighing on the currency. Part of that could be the fact that the bearishpositioning on the dollar could be overstretched and we might be at the peak ofthe dovish pricing. In fact, if the rate cutstrigger stronger economic activity in the next months, the rate cuts in 2026could be priced out and support the dollar. Nevertheless, the trend is stillskewed to the downside, and we might need strong data to reverse it. OnWednesday, we have the Fed rate decision where the central bank is expected tocut by 25 bps and signal two more cuts by year-end.On the GBP side, onThursday we have the BoE rate decision where the central bank is expected tokeep the bank rate unchanged with a 7-2 vote split as Dhingra and Taylor areseen voting for a cut. The BoE delivereda hawkish cut at the last meeting and since then the data has been coming onthe hotter side. In fact, the latest UK CPIsurprised once again to the upside and the latest Flash PMIs, although mixed,showed strength and persistent inflationary pressures. Recently, the BoE’squarterly inflation expectations survey also jumped to a two-year high, whichcould support the hawks’ view that higher inflation expectations aretransmitting into higher wage bargaining and keeping inflation higher forlonger.GBPUSDTechnical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we cansee that GBPUSD is probing above the key 1.3589 resistance as the USD remains skewed tothe downside heading into the FOMC decision. The buyers will likely increasethe bullish bets into the 1.3789 level next with a defined risk below the1.3589 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the pricefalling back below the 1.3589 level to pile in for a drop into the 1.3368 support.GBPUSD TechnicalAnalysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we cansee that we now have an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. Incase we get a pullback into the trendline, we can expect the buyers to lean on itwith a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, onthe other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets intothe 1.3368 support.GBPUSD TechnicalAnalysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, there’snot much else we can add here as the buyers will start piling in around theselevels with a defined risk below the 1.3589 level or look for a bounce aroundthe trendline to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand,will want to see the price falling back below the 1.3589 level to position fora drop into the 1.3368 support and increase the bearish bets on a break belowthe trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.Upcoming CatalystsTomorrow we get the UK Employment and US Retail Sales data. OnWednesday, we have the UK CPI and the FOMC policy announcement. On Thursday, wehave the BoE rate decision and the lates US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday,we conclude the week with the UK Retail Sales report. Keep also an eye on WSJ’sTimiraos as he could signal a 50 bps cut in his Fed preview. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.