EUR/USD And There's the TestEuro / U.S. DollarFOREXCOM:EURUSDFOREXcomWhile US CPI printed in-line with expectations, it was the jobless claims data that seemed to get the attention around the Dollar. But perhaps more important than that was the comment from Christine Lagarde, saying that disinflation appeared to be coming to a conclusion for the Eurozone economy. This is something that could press rate cut expectations out of Europe lower, and for the USD, this is important. The Euro is a 57.6% clip in the DXY basket, so weakness in Euro is often a necessary ingredient for USD-strength and vice versa. And so far in Q3, both trends have been stalled, with USD grinding near supports and EUR/USD holding near resistance. I've posted about the EUR/USD setup multiple times as there was an open door for a turn in July that snapped back quickly in August. And then last week saw the build of two different bullish formations come to conclusion with a bull pennant and an inverse head and shoulders pattern. Both patterns gave way to breakout after the NFP report last week and today sees the 1.1663 support level in-play, helping to lead to a bounce and a test of the longer-term Fibonacci level at 1.1748. This opens the door for bulls to make a move and if we are going to see USD breakdown scenarios, this seems to be an important variable to allow that to happen. Next resistance in EUR/USD is at the 1.1830 swing high, after which it's all about the 1.2000 handle. As for fundamental drivers, next week brings the Fed and markets have heavily priced-in rate cuts out to the end of next year. - js