Cable Trade Plan 15-19 Sep, 2025British Pound/US DollarFX:GBPUSDPointBreak42Base Case (60%): Range-Bound with a Dixie Tilt Narrative: The US data/Trump expectations continue to weigh on the dollar more than the UK data weighs on the pound. The carry trade remains in vogue. Price Action: Cable grinds higher or just chops within its recent range (1.500 - 1.600). It's a "best of a bad bunch" story. Trading: Wait for pullbacks toward supply, for longs; targeting the top of the range. (Trading the range, not the doom-and-gloom fundamental view.) Bear Case (30%): UK Data Starts the Unwind Narrative: A key UK data points (jobs report shows unemployment spiking, or CPI comes in softer than expected) is a canary in the coal mine. It would signal the economy is breaking so fast that the BoE will be forced to cut rates soon, regardless of inflation. This breaks the strong leg (carry trade). Price Action: A sharp, impulsive drop below key demand levels (1.400 1.450). This would be the first sign of the fundamental story taking over. Trading: A break and close below this key demand of 1.450 could be a signal to short, targeting a move to the next major area of demand 1.400. Wild Card (10%): UK Inflation Shock Narrative: UK CPI comes in hotter than expected (e.g., headline ticks up toward 4%). Price Action: Cable spikes higher. This would force a massive unwind of BoE rate cut bets. Traders would be forced to buy Sterling, pushing Cable through 1.600 to potential 1.725 Trading: This would be a fadeable rally. Using the strength as an entry at more over-brought levels, initiating or adding to longer-term strategic shorts, as it only deepens the BoE's trap and worsens the eventual economic pain.