Bullish Nasdaq-but thread lightly Sep 15-19E-mini Nasdaq-100 Futures (Sep 2025)CME_MINI:NQU2025JP_Tru NQU2025 Quick summary / bias Price put in a clear bullish structure through Thursday → Friday (higher highs, higher lows) but just hit a liquidity sweep up to 24159 and pulled back into a visible Imbalance / order-block area that sits right above the 4H open / purple line at 24001.50. So my primary bias is bullish as long as price holds the 24000–24040 area. If price breaks and closes below the origin lows around 23969 → 23909 the bias flips bearish. ---------------------------------------------- What I see (structure + important levels) Higher-timeframe context: an impulsive move up from the 23960–23970 region into the 24159 high — that’s a clear displacement and creation of a bullish imbalance (the shaded box on the chart). Liquidity events: a pronounced wick above 24159 (buy-side liquidity run) followed by a quick sell—classic stop-hunt then retrace into the Price Imbalance. Key horizontal levels to use: Resistance / short-term target: 24159.00 (recent high / liquidity high). Primary support / confluence (buy zone): 24001.50 (purple line / 4H open) and the grey FVG just above it (~24000–24080 area). Invalidation / bearish trigger: a decisive break below 23969.00 (and especially below the referenced originating imbalance around 23909–23871 on the left). Current quote on the chart: 24,115.25 (shows we’ve pulled off the 24159 high and are sitting into the gap/OB). ---------------------------------------------- Trade ideas (clear entries, stops, targets) A — Primary (preferred) — Long (mean-reversion into Imbalance / structural buy) Why: Market made an impulsive rally; sweep above 24159 sucked liquidity and then pulled back into the bullish imbalance + 4H open — a high-probability area for continuation if buyers defend it. Entry (limit or 1-min confirmation): ~24020 (inside the Imbalance / just above 24001.50). If you trade micro time frames: wait for a 5-min displacement down into the FVG and then a 1-min bullish rejection (tight lower wick + bullish engulf / strong rejection) to enter. Stop: 23950 (just below the liquidity sweep low / below 23969). Targets: T1: 24159.00 (recent high). T2: 24240 (extension if T1 runs — measured continuation). Risk math (example): Entry = 24,020; Stop = 23,950 → risk = 70 points. T1 = 24,159 → reward = 139 points → RR ≈ 1.99 : 1. T2 = 24,240 → reward = 220 → RR ≈ 3.14 : 1. Management: scale out (25% at T1, move stop to breakeven, trail rest by structure). --------------------------------------------------- B — Aggressive Long (breakout continuation) Trigger: Clean break and close above 24159 and a retest that holds the level. Entry: Long on retest above 24159. Stop: below the retest low (e.g., 24120). Target: next measured move / psychological round levels (e.g., 24280–24320). ---------------------------------------------------- Execution rules / signals (so you’d know exactly what to do) Prefer entries at confluence: Imbalance + 4H open + prior liquidity level (24000–24040). Micro confirmation: On the 5-min, look for the displacement into the FVG; on the 1-min look for a clean rejection (long wick and quick bullish candle) before hitting “buy”. This matches your stated process (displacement on 5m, reversal on 1m). Position sizing: risk per trade = set so your stop distance × size = e.g., 0.5%–1% of account. Don’t risk full target size on one slice—scale in. If price closes below 23969 on the 1H (or a strong 5-min close below), stand down on longs and look for short entries only after a retest. ---------------------------------------------------- Invalidation & what to watch Invalidation of bullish view: clean close and follow-through below 23969 (especially if price closes and stays below 23909). That flips the edge to the bears. Confirmation of continuation: price holds the Imbalance/4H open (24001.50) and reclaims/prints above 24159 with a clean retest (shows buyers absorbed liquidity). ---------------------------------------------------- Remember that confirmation not only validates the idea but it increases the success probability of the idea.