Galp strengthens its Iberian strategy with MoeveGalp Energia, SGPS S.A. Class BEURONEXT_DLY:GALPActivTradesIon Jauregui - Analyst at ActivTrades Galp Energia has taken a significant strategic step by reaching a non-binding agreement with Moeve to integrate their downstream businesses in the Iberian Peninsula. The transaction, which aims to create two platforms with European scale —IndustrialCo and RetailCo— seeks to strengthen competitiveness against major players such as Repsol and to accelerate the energy transition using existing assets. The transaction: size, scale, and strategic focus The alliance envisages the merger of both companies’ service station networks, creating a pan-Iberian network of approximately 3,500 points of sale across Spain and Portugal. Under this structure, Galp’s service stations in Spain would largely transition to the Moeve brand, while those in Portugal would operate under the Galp brand, with Ballenoil remaining as a third brand. On the industrial side, Galp would contribute its key asset, the Sines refinery, one of the most competitive complexes in Southern Europe, currently undergoing a transition toward a lower-carbon profile. Notable projects include advanced biofuels (HVO/SAF) and a 100 MW green hydrogen electrolyser, aligned with decarbonisation and energy security objectives. Galp would retain more than 20% of IndustrialCo and shared control of RetailCo, while continuing to be listed on the Portuguese stock exchange. This structure allows Galp to preserve strategic assets outside the scope of the integration, such as upstream and renewables. Fundamental analysis of Galp From a fundamental perspective, the transaction is positive for Galp for several reasons. First, it allows the company to unlock value from mature industrial assets, reduce operational risks, and gain scale in retail without assuming full control. Second, it strengthens Galp’s positioning in electric mobility, convenience solutions, and end customers —segments with higher margins and recurring revenues. In addition, the alliance improves the visibility of future cash flows, supports capital discipline, and reinforces Galp’s defensive profile in an environment of gradual energy transition. Technical analysis of Galp From a technical standpoint, the long-term structure remains broadly range-bound. In the short term, the company experienced sharp corrections in December last year, causing the 50- and 100-day moving averages to fall below the 200-day moving average. More recent news has driven a recovery from the lows around EUR 13.960 to the current price near EUR 15.455. The current Point of Control (POC) is located around EUR 15.843. The stock is currently supported by the 50-day moving average, while the most relevant resistance lies first at the long-term average zone and subsequently at the highs reached last November at EUR 18.505. If the recovery trend is maintained, the price could target these highs and act as a catalyst for a new bullish leg. Conversely, failure to decisively break above the long-term average could be interpreted negatively by the market. The RSI indicator is currently in neutral territory after having recently touched lows. The MACD also points to a recovery process, with a positive histogram but signal lines still below it, indicating some underlying weakness and buying interest concentrated around the current support level. The market interprets the transaction as structurally positive, although not without regulatory and execution risks between both companies, which has at least allowed the stock to embark on an apparent recovery path. Additionally, the ActivTrades Europe Market Pulse indicator signals an increase in RISK-ON sentiment, which could lead to partial profit-taking in stocks with stronger recent performance. Moeve strengthens Galp Portugal The potential integration with Moeve reinforces Galp’s strategic narrative: scale, specialisation, and a pragmatic energy transition. In the medium term, the transaction could act as an additional catalyst for the stock, provided that definitive terms are finalised and financial discipline is maintained. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). 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