Ripple is under pressure, but not for longXRP / TetherUSBINANCE:XRPUSDTTimofei81827DEGeopolitical Escalation: New conflicts have taken center stage. Markets are reacting nervously to the rhetoric surrounding Greenland and political instability in Iran and Venezuela. Investors are fleeing risk assets for "safe havens" like gold, which has already broken the $4,500 mark. Spot ETF Outflows: A massive exit of institutional capital was recorded in early January. Between January 6 and January 9 alone, net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs totaled approximately $1.38 billion. Trade Wars and Tariffs: Anticipation of the U.S. Supreme Court's decision regarding the legality of tariffs introduced by the Trump administration in 2025 is creating uncertainty for the entire global economy. Liquidity Crisis: Despite the conclusion of the Quantitative Tightening (QT) program in December 2025, capital is in no hurry to return to crypto due to high real yields on government bonds. Chances of the Fed Holding Rates in 2026 Your question about the rate is highly relevant: the Fed is currently in a "hawkish pause." As of January 12, 2026, the rate stands at 3.5–3.75%. Why rates might NOT be lowered (or lowered extremely slowly): Division within the Fed: According to the latest minutes (Dot Plot), there is no unity among committee members. The median forecast suggests only one 0.25% cut for the entirety of 2026. Resilient Economy: The U.S. GDP forecast for 2026 was revised upward to 2.3%. With such growth and low unemployment (around 4.4%), the regulator has little incentive to "rescue" the economy with cheap money. Inflationary Risks: Donald Trump’s tariff policies could trigger a new wave of inflation. If prices begin to rise due to expensive imported goods, the Fed will be forced to keep rates high. Leadership Change: A new Fed Chair is expected to take office in May 2026, adding uncertainty to the long-term strategy. Summary: The chances that there will be no aggressive rate cuts are very high. The market expects a "monetary pause" at least through the first half of 2026.