艾莎2026年1月12日2014年，中国最高领导人习近平和委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗在加拉加斯握手。 Leo Ramirez/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesFor China, President Trump’s power grab in Venezuela is a frontal attack on a longstanding source of oil, cultivated through billions of dollars in loans and years of political courtship. But Mr. Trump has also expressed a wider vision for power that involves breaking China’s economic dominance across Latin America.对中国而言，特朗普总统在委内瑞拉的夺权行动直接冲击了它通过数百亿美元的贷款和多年政治拉拢培育起来的长期石油供应源。但特朗普还表达了一个更广泛的战略愿景，其中就包括打破中国在整个拉丁美洲的经济主导地位。His new focus — and willingness to put military force behind it — threatens to loosen China’s economic grip in a region where it has quietly used abundant trade, enormous loans and financial tie-ups to build influence.他的新关注点以及不惜动用武力的意愿可能削弱中国在拉丁美洲的经济控制力。中国一直在该地区悄然通过庞大的贸易规模、巨额贷款以及错综复杂的金融绑定来建立影响力。China has gone from doing nearly no business in the region two decades ago to bilateral trade worth more than $500 billion in 2024.20年前，中国在该地区几乎没有任何商业活动；而到2024年，中国与拉美的双边贸易额已超过5000亿美元。Chinese mining companies extract copper from Peru and lithium from Argentina. China’s agricultural conglomerates import lifeline commodities like soybeans from Brazil. Chinese utilities power entire cities. China controls much of the shipping infrastructure and the ports that transit goods across the Pacific.中国的矿业公司在秘鲁开采铜矿，在阿根廷开采锂矿。中国的农业巨头从巴西进口大豆等关键农产品。中国的电力企业为整座城市供电。中国更掌控着跨太平洋货运基础设施与港口网络。Latin America’s 670 million consumers are also buying Chinese brands. In Mexico, dealerships sell gasoline-powered Chery cars and MG sedans. In Brazil, the fast-food chain Mixue sells ice cream, the e-commerce platform Meituan delivers food and the ride-hailing service Didi ferries people around. In Peru, Xiaomi smartphones are popular.拉丁美洲约6.7亿消费者也在购买中国品牌。在墨西哥，经销商销售奇瑞燃油车和MG轿车。在巴西有蜜雪冰城连锁店、美团外卖平台和滴滴出行服务。在秘鲁，小米智能手机广受欢迎。China has closely followed Mr. Trump’s comments singling out countries like Colombia, Cuba and Mexico, and it has expressed its opposition to the U.S. actions in Venezuela, saying China’s economic relationship with the country is “protected by international law and relevant laws.”中国密切关注特朗普针对哥伦比亚、古巴和墨西哥等国家的表态，并对美国在委内瑞拉的行动表示反对，称中国与该国的经济关系“受到国际法和相关法律的保护”。秘鲁查瓦瓦乔，一座由中国公司运营的铜矿。（资料照片，拍摄时间不详）2023年，习近平和马杜罗在北京会面。（资料照片）A spokesman for China’s Commerce Ministry said this week that “China will continue to work with Latin American countries to address international vicissitudes.”中国商务部一名发言人本周表示：“中方愿同拉方一道，继续团结协作应对国际风云变幻。”China is still owed, by one estimate, about $10 billion that Venezuela is paying off through oil shipments. Last year, more than half of its crude exports — or 768,000 barrels per day — went to China, according to Kpler, a global oil monitoring service.据估计，委内瑞拉仍欠中国约100亿美元，正通过石油出口偿还。根据全球石油监测机构Kpler的数据，去年委内瑞拉超过一半的原油出口——即每日76.8万桶——流向中国。Washington’s new strategy “explicitly focuses on China’s influence in Latin America, which will pose certain challenges to Chinese investment,” said Tao Zhigang, a Chinese economist. This investment “faces a lot of uncertainty,” Mr. Tao told local Chinese media.中国经济学家陶志刚表示，华盛顿的新战略“明确关注中国在拉美的影响力，这会给中企投资带来一定挑战”。他对中国当地媒体说，这类投资“确实有不确定性”。China’s pursuit of deeper ties in Latin America began two decades ago. At the time, Chinese companies were scouring the world to secure copper, oil and iron ore to power China’s breathtaking economic growth. Chinese banks extended ever-larger loans to countries across Latin America in exchange for oil and critical minerals, and along the way China began building railways and highways and selling its goods.中国深化与拉丁美洲关系的努力始于20年前。当时，中国企业在全球各地搜寻铜、石油和铁矿石，以支撑中国惊人的经济增长。中国的银行向拉美国家提供规模越来越大的贷款，换取石油和关键矿产。与此同时，中国开始修建铁路和公路，并向当地销售商品。Since then, China has economically displaced the United States in 10 of 12 countries in South America alone, according to research by Francisco Urdinez, an associate professor of political science at the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile. China now engages in more trade, investment and development financing than the United States in most of the region, including Central America.据智利天主教大学政治学副教授弗朗西斯科·乌尔迪内斯的研究，自那以后，仅在南美的12个国家中，中国在10个国家的经济影响力上取代了美国。如今，在拉丁美洲大多数国家（包括中美洲），中国在贸易、投资和发展融资方面都超过了美国。China is Latin America’s largest official source of aid and credit, offering an estimated $303 billion in financing across the region between 2000 and 2023, according to AidData, a research institute at the College of William and Mary in Williamsburg, Va. Between 2014 and 2023, for every $1 lent or given in aid by the United States in Latin America and the Caribbean, China provided $3, said Brad Parks, the executive director of AidData.根据威廉与玛丽学院研究机构AidData的数据，2000年至2023年间，中国已成为拉丁美洲最大的官方援助和信贷来源，向该地区提供了约3030亿美元融资。AidData执行主任布拉德·帕克斯表示，在2014年至2023年间，美国在拉丁美洲和加勒比地区每提供1美元的贷款或援助，中国就提供了3美元。These investments in many cases have left the countries saddled with debt and obligations to fulfill contracts for commodities like oil.在许多案例中，这些投资让相关国家背负了沉重债务，并需履行石油等大宗商品合同的义务。China’s lending binge also gave its companies an advantage when they bid for government contracts to build roads, power lines and major projects like a multibillion-dollar dam in the Ecuadorean jungle (which turned out to be ill fated). Over time, China’s economic activities translated into a handful of free-trade agreements and better access for Chinese companies.中国的大规模放贷也让该国企业在竞标政府基建项目时占据优势——从道路、输电线路到大型工程项目（例如厄瓜多尔丛林中耗资数十亿美元、最终以失败告终的的大坝）。随着时间推移，中国的经济活动促成了若干自由贸易协定，并为中国企业带来了更便利的市场准入条件。位于厄瓜多尔丛林中的科卡科多辛克雷大坝。中国的贷款帮助其企业获得了政府的基础设施建设合同。MG这样的中国汽车制造商已经在墨西哥站稳了脚跟。Latin America swelled with a range of goods from Chinese factories, from car parts, electronic devices and appliances to equipment for satellites and space infrastructure — another area where China has invested heavily.来自中国工厂的各类商品大量涌入拉丁美洲，从汽车零部件、电子产品和家用电器到卫星和太空基础设施设备——中国重金投入的另一领域。The region, in turn, became China’s most important source of critical minerals, including rare earths, an industry that China has near-total global control over.拉丁美洲也因此成为中国最重要的关键矿产来源地，包括稀土这个被中国近乎垄断全球供应链的产业。“Hundreds of Chinese enterprises, and five to 10 banks from China, are on the ground in Latin America that were not active 20 years ago,” said Mr. Urdinez, the professor in Chile.“如今有数百家中国企业以及五到10家中国银行在拉丁美洲开展业务，而在20年前它们还并不活跃，”乌尔迪内斯教授说。“China hasn’t replaced the U.S. hegemony, but it has eroded the leverage that Washington once had in the 1980s and 1990s,” he said.他说：“中国尚未取代美国的霸权，但它削弱了华盛顿在上世纪80年代和90年代曾经拥有的影响力。”By countless measures, China has outpaced competitors. Chinese companies are selling more cars to Mexico than any other country. Chile is the second-largest overseas destination for Chinese electric buses. Some of the trade also travels in the other direction: Nearly half of Chile’s exports now go to China.从诸多指标来看，中国已明显领先于竞争对手。中国企业向墨西哥出售的汽车数量超过任何其他国家。智利是中国电动公交车的第二大海外目的地。部分贸易也是双向的：智利近一半的出口产品如今销往中国。But President Trump has signaled that he wants to curb China’s advances in the region.但特朗普已表明，他希望遏制中国在该地区的扩张。Before his military raid that removed Venezuela’s president, Nicolás Maduro, and took control of the country’s oil, Mr. Trump had threatened to “take back” the Panama Canal. He accused the canal’s main port operator, the Hong Kong conglomerate CK Hutchison Holdings, of being an extension of China’s Communist Party. He called out Mexico for being a “back door” to the United States for Chinese goods. He has tried to use a 50 percent tariff on Brazil to secure a trade deal that limits Chinese investment in the country.在发动军事行动、推翻委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗并控制该国石油资源之前，特朗普曾威胁要“收回”巴拿马运河。他指责运河主要港口运营商香港企业长江和记实业实际上受中国共产党控制。他称墨西哥是中国商品进入美国的“后门”。他还试图通过对巴西征收50%的关税迫使其达成限制中国投资的贸易协议。2021年，委内瑞拉蓬托菲霍附近，远处可见油轮和炼油厂。委内瑞拉一直以石油运输偿还中国的贷款。马杜罗被美国抓捕后，他在加拉加斯的支持者要求释放他。And Mr. Trump released a national security strategy last month that asserted that he would deny “competitors” from outside the Western Hemisphere the ability “to own or control strategically vital assets, in our hemisphere.”上个月，特朗普发布了一份国家安全战略，宣称将阻止来自西半球以外的“竞争对手”“拥有或控制我们半球内具有战略意义的关键资产”。China’s business world is on alert. A consortium of Chinese companies that is developing a major copper mine in Ecuador said this week that it would put the project on hold, citing a “volatile” political situation in the country. China and Ecuador signed a free-trade agreement in 2023. At the time, Ecuadorean officials indicated that they would have preferred to sign with the United States.中国商界已高度警惕。一个正在厄瓜多尔开发大型铜矿项目的中资企业联盟本周表示，将暂缓推进该项目，理由是当地政治局势“动荡”。中国与厄瓜多尔于2023年签署了自由贸易协定；当时厄瓜多尔官员曾暗示，他们更希望与美国签署协议。“It is normal and understandable that some Chinese companies might halt their investments after such a sudden geopolitical event,” said Cui Shoujun, director of the Research Center for Latin American Studies at Renmin University in Beijing, referring to Mr. Maduro’s capture.“中国企业在如此突发的地缘政治事件之后暂停投资，是正常且可以理解的，”中国人民大学拉丁美洲研究中心主任崔守军说，他指的是马杜罗被捕一事。Analysts said many governments would most likely turn to the United States if given an option to engage more deeply.分析人士表示，如果存在选择空间，许多拉美国家很可能会转向与美国更深入地合作。But they need funding for developmental needs that the United States, under Mr. Trump, may not be ready to address.但这些国家的发展需求急需资金支持，而特朗普领导下的美国未必愿意提供。“Is the U.S. just worried about the defensive element of competition with China or is the U.S. going to deliver a credible offensive play?” asked Henrietta Levin, senior fellow for the Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.“美国只是担心与中国竞争中的防御因素，还是会拿出切实有效的进攻方案？”华盛顿战略与国际问题研究中心弗里曼中国研究讲席高级研究员李文(Henrietta Levin)问道。“China has established such a powerful position within the economic status quo that it will be challenging for the administration to counter all of it in an effective way,” Ms. Levin said. She said the United States would need to offer a large and comprehensive aid program like the Marshall Plan, which helped to rebuild Europe after World War II.她表示：“中国已经在既有的经济格局中建立了如此强大的地位，政府很难有效地全面反制。”她认为，美国需要提供类似二战后重建欧洲的马歇尔计划那样大规模的综合援助方案。Several big Latin American countries, including Brazil, Mexico, Chile and Colombia, have denounced Mr. Trump’s actions in Venezuela, something that Mr. Cui, the Chinese professor, said could strengthen China’s ties with these countries.包括巴西、墨西哥、智利和哥伦比亚在内，多个拉美大国已公开谴责特朗普在委内瑞拉的行动。崔守军认为，这可能会加强中国与这些国家的关系。Besides, Mr. Cui added, it is impossible for China and Latin America to walk away from each other. “Who will Latin America sell its soybeans and corn to?”此外，他还说，中国与拉丁美洲不可能彼此脱钩。“拉美的大豆和玉米要卖给谁呢？”Pei-Lin Wu对本文有报道贡献。艾莎(Alexandra Stevenson)是《纽约时报》上海分社社长，报道中国经济和社会新闻。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。