ABDI LATIF DAHIR, LEILY NIKOUNAZAR, FARNAZ FASSIHI, EPHRAT LIVNI2026年1月12日Antigovernment protests in Iran grew in size and violence in the last few days as security forces cracked down on demonstrations that began over economic woes two weeks ago and have broadened into a mass movement challenging Iran’s authoritarian clerical rulers.伊朗反政府抗议活动在过去几天规模持续扩大，暴力冲突升级。此次抗议始于两周前，最初因经济困境引发，现已演变为挑战伊朗威权神职统治的大规模运动，安全部队正对示威者实施镇压。As of Sunday, some human rights monitors said nearly 200 people, and possibly many more, had been killed since the protests began in late December. The number, a spike over estimates in recent days, suggests the increasingly violent nature of confrontations between protesters and security forces. But restrictions on the internet and international communications have made independent assessments difficult, human rights groups have said.截至周日，一些人权观察机构称，自12月底抗议爆发以来，已有近200人丧生，实际数字可能更多。这一数字较近期估计大幅上升，反映出抗议者与安全部队之间的冲突日趋暴力。但人权组织表示，由于互联网和国际通讯受到限制，使得独立评估难以进行。The government has tried to acknowledge the economic difficulties while at the same time cracking down on demonstrators and seeking to blame external forces for fomenting unrest. Iran’s president, in an interview with state television on Saturday, promised to address economic grievances but warned that the state also had a “duty” not to allow the country to be destabilized.伊朗政府一方面试图承认存在经济困难，另一方面则对抗议者采取镇压措施，并试图将动乱归咎于外部势力。伊朗总统周六在接受国家电视台采访时承诺解决民众的经济诉求，但同时警告称，政府有“责任”不让国家陷入动荡。The authorities have threatened to exact tough measures against protesters and to retaliate if there is international interference. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said on Friday that the government would “not back down” and called the protesters vandals who were trying to “please” President Trump.当局威胁将对抗议者采取严厉措施，并警告若有国际干预将予以反击。伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊周五表示，政府“不会退缩”，并称抗议者是试图“取悦”特朗普总统的破坏者。Mr. Trump has pledged that the United States would come to the aid of protesters if the government used lethal force against them, and he is considering possible options. “Iran is looking at FREEDOM, perhaps like never before,” Mr. Trump wrote on social media on Saturday. “The USA stands ready to help!!!”特朗普已承诺，若伊朗政府对抗议者使用致命武力，美国将对抗议者提供援助，且目前正在考虑相关可行方案。“伊朗正迎来前所未有的自由曙光，”特朗普周六在社交媒体上写道。“美国已准备好提供援助！！！”Why are Iranians protesting?伊朗人为何抗议？Iran’s economy has been under sustained pressure for years, largely as a result of U.S. and European sanctions tied to its nuclear ambitions. A 12-day war with Israel last June, which the United States joined to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities, further drained the country’s financial resources.多年来，伊朗经济一直持续承受压力，这主要是由于美国和欧洲针对其核计划实施的制裁。去年6月，伊朗与以色列爆发了一场持续12天的战争，美国参与轰炸了伊朗核设施，进一步耗尽了伊朗的财政资源。When the currency plunged against the U.S. dollar in late December, amid persistently high inflation, merchants and university students staged days of protests.12月底，在通胀居高不下的背景下，伊朗货币兑美元汇率暴跌，商人与大学生随即发起了连日抗议。But as the rallies grew, the protests became a broader criticism of the rule of Iran’s theocratic government. Across social media and television, protesters were seen chanting slogans including, “Death to the dictator” and “Iranians, raise your voice, shout out for your rights.”随着集会规模扩大，抗议活动逐渐演变为对伊朗神权政府统治的广泛批评。社交媒体和电视画面显示，抗议者高呼“独裁者去死”、“伊朗人，发出声音，为权利呐喊”等口号。How intense are these protests?抗议活动有多激烈？Demonstrations have spread to dozens of cities across Iran, according to tracking by the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War.据美国战争研究所追踪，抗议活动已蔓延至伊朗数十座城市。On Saturday, HRANA, a U.S.-based Iranian human rights monitor, reported that there were more than 570 protests in 185 cities across all 31 provinces of the country, and more than 2,600 arrests.周六，总部位于美国的伊朗人权组织HRANA报告称，伊朗31个省份的185座城市共爆发了570多场抗议活动，超过2600人被捕。On Friday, videos posted on BBC Persian television showed thousands of people marching in Tehran, drawing supporters from what residents said in interviews was a cross-section of working-class, middle-class and wealthy neighborhoods.周五，BBC波斯语频道发布的视频显示，数以千计的人在德黑兰游行，民众在采访中表示，参与者来自工人阶级、中产阶级和富裕社区等各个社会阶层。Videos verified by The New York Times showed armed men firing weapons along empty streets in two Iranian cities on Friday and Saturday, in an apparent effort to intimidate residents and would-be protesters.经《纽约时报》核实的视频显示，周五和周六，武装人员在伊朗两座城市的空旷街道上开枪，显然是为了恐吓居民和潜在抗议者。As of Sunday, at least 192 people had been killed in the protests, according to Iran Human Rights, a nonprofit monitor based in Norway.总部位于挪威的非营利组织“伊朗人权”称，截至周日，至少192人在抗议活动中遇难。Iran’s chief of police, Brig. Gen. Ahmadreza Radan, blamed the deaths and injuries on “unpaid soldiers of Iran’s enemies,” including the United States and Israel, saying that actions “were not carried out by security forces, but by trained and directed elements.”伊朗警察总长艾哈迈德礼萨·拉丹准将将伤亡事件归咎于“伊朗敌人的雇佣军”，这些敌人包括美国和以色列。他表示，这些行为“并非安全部队所为，而是由受过训练和指使的势力实施”。Amir Reza, 42, an engineer, said in an interview from Tehran on Friday that he could hear gunfire and had decided to go home after riot police officers and militias in plainclothes began firing in the air and chasing crowds to disperse them.42岁的工程师阿米尔·礼萨周五在德黑兰接受采访时表示，他听到了枪声，在防暴警察和便衣民兵开始鸣枪示警并驱散人群后，他决定回家。A video on Friday verified by The New York Times showed at least seven people lying motionless on the floor of Al-Ghadir Hospital in Tehran, apparently dead.《纽约时报》周五核实的一段视频显示，德黑兰的阿勒加迪尔医院地板上至少有七人一动不动，显然已死亡。伊朗国家媒体发布的一张照片显示，12月29日德黑兰发生抗议活动。How has Iran’s government responded?伊朗政府如何回应？The government initially signaled a willingness to listen to protesters’ demands. Earlier this month, it announced plans to provide most citizens with a monthly payment equivalent to around $7.政府最初曾表示愿意听取抗议者的诉求。本月早些时候，伊朗宣布计划向大多数公民每月发放约七美元的补贴。President Masoud Pezeshkian has acknowledged what he called the public’s “legitimate” grievances. He quickly appointed a new head of the central bank and urged against “any violent and coercive behavior.”总统佩泽希齐扬承认民众存在“正当的”诉求。他迅速任命了新的中央银行行长，并敦促避免“任何暴力和胁迫行为”。Yet Iranian officials have hardened their stance in recent days, echoing previous rounds of unrest when the authorities used mass arrests and violence to suppress demonstrations.然而，伊朗官员近期立场趋于强硬，这与此前几轮动乱期间当局通过大规模逮捕和暴力手段镇压抗议的做法如出一辙。Mohammad Movahedi Azad, Iran’s prosecutor general, warned on Saturday in comments carried by Iranian state media that legal proceedings against rioters should be “without leniency, mercy or appeasement.” He warned that “all criminals involved” would be considered an “enemy of God,” a capital offense.伊朗总检察长穆罕默德·穆瓦赫迪·阿扎德周六透过伊朗官方媒体警告称，针对暴乱者的法律诉讼应当“毫不留情、绝不仁慈、绝不姑息”。他还警告，所有涉案罪犯都将被视为“真主之敌”，这一罪名可被判处死刑。What has been the international reaction?国际社会有何反应？Iran’s government is weakened on the international stage and dealing with the gnawing fear of another round of U.S. or Israeli military strikes. Threats from President Trump have been especially resonant in light of the U.S. capture of Venezuela’s president, Nicolás Maduro, earlier this month.伊朗政府在国际舞台上地位削弱，同时还担忧美国或以色列可能发动新一轮军事打击。鉴于本月早些时候美国抓获委内瑞拉总统马杜罗，特朗普的威胁尤其引发关注。Mr. Trump has said that the United States is “locked and loaded and ready to go” if the Iranian government used lethal force against demonstrators, and he has been briefed on potential military strikes, according to U.S. officials familiar with the matter, but as of Sunday Mr. Trump had not said publicly if he’d made a final decision on whether to follow through on his threat.据知情美国官员透露，特朗普表示，若伊朗政府对抗议者使用致命武力，美国将“严阵以待，随时准备行动”，且已听取有关潜在军事打击的简报，但截至周日，特朗普尚未公开表示是否已就兑现威胁做出最终决定。Democratic and Republican lawmakers on Sunday expressed wariness about American interference in Iran, however.不过，周日，美国民主党和共和党议员均对美国干预伊朗事务表示担忧。Iranian officials said that they would react forcefully to an intervention. “If the United States takes military action, both the occupied territories and U.S. military and shipping lanes will be our legitimate targets,” Mohammed Ghalibaf, Iran’s speaker of Parliament, said in a statement on Sunday, according to Iran’s semiofficial news agency, Tasnim. Both U.S. and Israeli military bases could be targets, he added.伊朗官员表示，将对任何干预行为做出强力回应。“如果美国采取军事行动，被占领土以及美国军事基地和航道都将成为我们的合法目标，”据伊朗半官方通讯社塔斯尼姆报道，伊朗议长穆罕默德·加利巴夫周日在声明中表示。他还称，美国和以色列的军事基地都可能成为打击目标。Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel said on Sunday that Israel was “closely monitoring” the protests and expressed support for the demonstrators. Israel’s army said it was “prepared defensively” for any attack.以色列总理内塔尼亚胡周日表示，以色列正“密切监控”伊朗抗议活动，并对抗议者表示支持。以色列军方称已做好“防御准备”，应对任何袭击。The unrest has also brought some attention back to Reza Pahlavi, the son of the deposed shah of Iran, who lives in exile in the United States. In a video on Saturday, he urged Iranians to attend evening protests over the weekend and called on workers in key sectors like oil and gas to go on strike.这场动乱也让流亡美国的伊朗前国王之子礼萨·巴列维重新受到关注。周六，他在一段视频中敦促伊朗人周末参加夜间抗议，并呼吁石油和天然气等关键行业的工人罢工。Footage from Jan. 9 that was verified by The New York Times showed a crowd of demonstrators gathered in Punak, Tehran, chanting: “This is the final battle. Pahlavi will return.” But some experts question the extent of support for Mr. Pahlavi in Iran.经《纽约时报》核实的1月9日画面显示，德黑兰的普纳克地区聚集了一群抗议者，他们高呼：“这是最终决战，巴列维将归来。”但部分专家对巴列维在伊朗国内的受支持程度表示质疑。Aurelien Breeden和Sanjana Varghese对本文有报道贡献。Abdi Latif Dahir是《纽约时报》中东记者，报道黎巴嫩和叙利亚新闻。他常驻贝鲁特。Farnaz Fassihi是《纽约时报》联合国分社社长，领导关于该组织的报道。她还报道伊朗新闻，撰写有关中东冲突的新闻已有15年。Ephrat Livni是《纽约时报》记者，报道全球突发新闻。她常驻华盛顿。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。