SUPPORT ETHIOPIA INSIGHT .wpedon-container .wpedon-select, .wpedon-container .wpedon-input { width: 200px; min-width: 200px; max-width: 200px; } Israel’s gamble reshapes security, sovereignty, and regional orderOn 26 December, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a historic move by officially recognizing the self-declared Republic of Somaliland as an independent, sovereign state.The decision broke a three-decade diplomatic consensus and marked the first time a United Nations member state had recognized Somaliland’s sovereignty since it declared independence from Somalia in 1991.Israel and Somaliland issued a joint declaration establishing full diplomatic relations, including plans for reciprocal embassies. Netanyahu framed the move as an extension of the Abraham Accords and invited Somaliland President Abdirahman Ciro to Jerusalem.In Hargeisa, the announcement was celebrated by thousands in the streets. For Somalilanders, it marked a symbolic end to decades of diplomatic isolation and a major step toward international legitimacy.For Somalia, however, the recognition poses a destabilizing challenge. Mogadishu is already battling al-Shabaab while relying on an underfunded and overstretched African Union peace mission.There is growing concern that the diplomatic crisis could weaken Somalia’s fragile security apparatus, enabling the jihadist insurgency to expand beyond its traditional strongholds and regain territory.International BacklashIsrael’s recognition of Somaliland sparked a largely negative international response, underscoring its diplomatic isolation on the issue.Somalia’s government condemned the move as an “act of aggression” against its sovereignty, framing it as an existential threat to national unity. Somalia’s ambassador to the United Nations warned that the decision could pave the way for the forced displacement of Palestinians from Gaza to Somaliland, a concern echoed by the Arab League.The African Union, European Union, Arab League, Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) rejected the move and reaffirmed support for Somalia’s territorial integrity. More than 20 African and Middle Eastern nations joined the collective condemnation.At an emergency UN Security Council session on 30 December, 14 of the 15 members denounced Israel’s action. China’s envoy warned against supporting separatist movements for geopolitical gain.The United States stood alone: while reiterating that it had no intention of recognizing Somaliland, Washington defended Israel’s right to do so and criticized the Council’s “double standards”, particularly in comparisons to recognition of Palestine.Key regional actors adopted cautious silence. Ethiopia—which struck a controversial January 2024 port-access agreement with Somaliland—avoided public comment, balancing its need for sea access against the risk of alienating Mogadishu. The United Arab Emirates, a major investor in Somaliland’s Berbera port and a close Israeli ally, likewise refrained from issuing a formal statement.Israel’s CalculusIsrael’s recognition of Somaliland was a calculated move, reflecting a convergence of maritime security interests, regional competition, economic opportunity, and diplomatic ambition.At the center of this strategy lies Somaliland’s 460-mile coastline along the Gulf of Aden, adjacent to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Roughly 12 percent of global trade and a substantial share of Europe’s energy imports pass through these waters.For Israel, an alliance overlooking the strait and Yemen offers a decisive advantage in monitoring maritime traffic and countering threats from Yemen, particularly from Iran-backed Houthi rebels who have repeatedly targeted international shipping.A formal Israeli presence would provide intelligence capabilities and a logistical foothold, shifting Israel’s posture in the Red Sea from reactive to proactive.The move also challenges Turkey’s growing influence in Mogadishu, where Ankara operates a major military base and manages key infrastructure. By aligning with Somaliland, Israel creates a rival power center in the Horn of Africa, setting the stage for sustained geopolitical competition.At the same time, recognition undermines Djibouti’s strategic dominance as a hub for global powers. The UAE-funded expansion of Berbera port offers a credible alternative. With Israeli recognition, Berbera becomes a strategic fallback for Western allies, complicates China’s logistics centered on Djibouti, and deepens the Israel–UAE partnership.Beyond security, the relationship opens economic and diplomatic channels. Economically, it allows Israeli trade, technology, and investment to access Ethiopia’s market and the broader East African region through Berbera.Diplomatically, Netanyahu framed the move as a continuation of the Abraham Accords, securing a symbolic victory by partnering with a moderate Muslim entity and extending Israel’s influence from the Middle East into the Horn of Africa.Israel is taking a calculated risk. The recognition invites backlash and isolation, but Israeli policymakers appear convinced that the strategic payoff outweighs the costs.Success will depend on how quickly Israel secures its interests before rising tensions undermine the stability it seeks to shape.Somaliland’s FragilitiesInternational perceptions of Somaliland oscillate between admiration for its stability and caution over the wider implications recognition may carry. Israel’s recognition sharpened this contrast: celebrated in Hargeisa as a diplomatic milestone, yet exposing internal vulnerabilities that complicate Somaliland’s claim to statehood.Since 1991, Somaliland has maintained relative peace, functioning institutions, and regular elections. Peaceful transfers of power, including after the 2024 election, have reinforced its reputation as a reliable partner. Israel has explicitly framed Somaliland as a “democratic, moderate Muslim” entity suitable for integration into the Abraham Accords framework.Yet this image masks significant territorial and political weaknesses. The government in Hargeisa does not fully control its claimed territory.The eastern regions of Sool and Sanaag remain contested, particularly with the Dhulbahante clan. In mid-2025, Dhulbahante leaders established the North-Eastern State (NES), a self-declared semi-autonomous administration aligned with Somalia’s federal government. The resulting clashes have displaced civilians and undermined Somaliland’s territorial integrity.Internal opposition also persists in the west. The Awdal State Movement (ASM), representing the Gadabuursi community, rejects Somaliland’s independence and advocates autonomy within a united Somalia. Its grievances center on perceived political and economic marginalization. The ASM strongly opposed Somaliland’s port-access deal with Ethiopia, viewing it as a violation of Somali sovereignty.Israel’s recognition has transformed these internal fissures into strategic liabilities. An alliance with Somaliland risks drawing Israel into Somalia’s unresolved civil conflicts. Recent diplomatic fallout, including Somaliland’s recall of its ambassador from Djibouti, underscores the potential for wider regional destabilization.Al-Shabaab’s ResurgenceIsrael’s recognition of Somaliland has handed al-Shabaab a potent propaganda tool, reshaping Somalia’s security landscape.The group quickly recast the move as a religious invasion, branding Somaliland’s leaders “apostate puppets” of a “Zionist crusader project.” This framing enables al-Shabaab to present itself as defending Islam and Somali sovereignty, broadening its appeal beyond traditional strongholds.President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s government now faces a dual crisis. As attention shifts from counterinsurgency to defending territorial integrity, hard-won gains against al-Shabaab risk unraveling. In recently liberated areas, unmet expectations around security and governance have fueled public disillusionment, conditions militants exploit to reassert control.The crisis is straining Somalia’s federal system. Federal member states such as Puntland and Jubaland, long wary of Mogadishu, may pursue independent foreign alignments, accelerating fragmentation and creating new openings for al-Shabaab.At the regional level, Israel’s move has disrupted the fragile regional security framework aimed at combating al-Shabaab. Somalia–Ethiopia security cooperation has weakened since Ethiopia’s 2024 memorandum with Somaliland on port access. The result is an emerging proxy contest: Turkey and Egypt backing Mogadishu, while Israel and the UAE support Somaliland.This rivalry undermines counterterrorism efforts as external actors prioritize strategic positioning over collective security. One of the most alarming consequences is the potential convergence between al-Shabaab and Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who now share an interest in opposing Israeli influence.For the Houthis, Somalia offers a southern flank from which to challenge Israel and global shipping. For al-Shabaab, cooperation could provide access to advanced weapons and extend its reach into the Red Sea corridor, placing vital maritime routes at risk.Continental PrecedentIsrael’s recognition of Somaliland challenges a core principle of the postcolonial African order: uti possidetis, the preservation of colonial borders. By implying that stability and democratic governance can justify sovereignty claims, the move risks emboldening separatist movements across the continent—from Nigeria’s Biafra to Ethiopia’s Tigray.The crisis is also inseparable from intensifying US–China competition. China’s first overseas military base in Djibouti anchors its influence near the Bab el-Mandeb. By contrast, Berbera—backed by a US-aligned coalition including Israel and the UAE—offers Western navies a strategic alternative, complicating Beijing’s dominance over this chokepoint.The Horn of Africa has thus become a layered conflict zone, where Somali internal divisions intersect with Middle Eastern proxy rivalries and the broader contest between Washington and Beijing. Somalia’s tragedy lies in being caught simultaneously on multiple geopolitical chessboards.Strategic FuturesThe recognition has introduced a new and destabilizing variable into an already volatile region. The trajectory now hinges on a handful of key actors whose next moves will determine whether the crisis is contained or becomes a continental contagion. Three outcomes appear plausible.Managed Stalemate (Most Likely Path).Recognition remains limited to Israel, and a broader cascade of endorsements is avoided. The African Union holds firm, while the United States publicly affirms Somalia’s sovereignty and privately urges restraint. Ethiopia maintains strategic silence.Somaliland claims a symbolic victory but remains diplomatically isolated. Somalia, distracted by the crisis, loses momentum against al-Shabaab, which exploits the narrative to regain territory. The region settles into a volatile status quo.Strategic Escalation.Ethiopia recognizes Somaliland to secure maritime access, fracturing AU unity. Other states follow for economic or strategic reasons. Western powers deepen security ties with Somaliland, while Israel and the UAE openly back it.Mogadishu counters by aligning with regional and global backers. The Horn splits into rival blocs, regional counterterrorism collapses, and al-Shabaab operates with increasing freedom.Catastrophic Spiral (least likely).Somalia launches military action to reclaim disputed territories or blockade Berbera. External powers intervene. Civilian displacement surges as Somalia fractures into rival fiefdoms. Al-Shabaab capitalizes on chaos, seizing cities and weapons. Disruption of the Bab el-Mandeb triggers global trade and energy shocks.Geopolitical CostsIsrael’s recognition of Somaliland reflects deft realpolitik, but raises serious questions about strategic foresight. It secures a foothold at a world-critical chokepoint, challenges rivals, and delivers a diplomatic breakthrough, while destabilizing the fragile ecosystem of the Horn of Africa.The central irony is that in seeking to counter Iran-backed Houthis and Turkish influence, Israel may have empowered a more immediate threat: al-Shabaab. The group has gained a unifying jihadist narrative, a distracted adversary, and a landscape ripe for fragmentation.By championing Somaliland’s democratic credentials, Israel has also exposed its internal fractures, potentially drawing itself into Somalia’s complex civil war.What is already clear is the emergence of a dangerous paradigm: in intensified global competition, regional stability and counterterrorism are increasingly treated as collateral damage. The Horn of Africa has become a chessboard for distant capitals.On such a board, local populations and the security of vital trade routes risk being treated as expendable pawns. .wpedon-container .wpedon-select, .wpedon-container .wpedon-input { width: 200px; min-width: 200px; max-width: 200px; } Query or correction? Email us window.addEventListener("sfsi_functions_loaded", function(){if (typeof sfsi_widget_set == "function") {sfsi_widget_set();}}); While this commentary contains the author’s opinions, Ethiopia Insight will correct factual errors.Main photo: Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar meets with Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi (Irro) at the Presidential Palace in Hargeisa, Somaliland, January 2026. Source: Presidency of the Republic of Somaliland.Published under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International licence. You may not use the material for commercial purposes.The post The Geopolitical Ripple Effects of Somaliland’s Recognition appeared first on Ethiopia Insight.