Cocoa futures narrative stinks!Cocoa FuturesICEUS_DLY:CC1!rubinglenNews outlets have been reporting that Friday's decline in the cocoa futures contract price is largely due to producer hedging. Looking at the chart and the cot data, this is clearly not the case! Producers were in fact buying long contracts just last month when the price dipped to $5,000. This makes plenty of sense since the farmers in West Africa have a floor of $5,040 US dollars per metric ton. The truth more likely is that this is an anomalous technical sell-off. Both Goldman Sachs and the Bloomberg index are doing their commodities rebalancing. Goldman tends to front load their sales and dump in volume, while Bloomberg uses vwap method to more gradually acquire the needed contracts. Friday's big red candle was Goldman selling and stops being triggered causing panic selling. This one time anomalous event does not invalidate the broader inverse head and shoulders pattern present on the chart. Panic selling is seldom more than a transitory and anomalous event. A v-shaped recovery will soon begin and the fulfillment of our inverse Head and shoulders pattern. The cocoa market is in scarcity and we will likely also, soon see a return to backwardation. Higher prices ahead my friends!