RACE

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RACEFerrari N.V.BATS:RACEA3MInvestmentsFERRARI (RACE): A Buying Opportunity or an Investor Trap? Shares of the Italian legend slumped following the October Capital Markets Day, as the market was disappointed by a modest growth forecast. During this key investor event, Ferrari made two major announcements that triggered the correction: Conservative 2030 Targets: The company set a revenue target of approximately €9 billion. This implies a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only ~5%—significantly lower than in previous years. EV Strategy Shift: The projected share of all-electric models by 2030 was halved, from 40% to 20%. The focus has shifted toward "horizontal diversification," emphasizing more limited-edition models. The market perceived this as a slowdown in the growth story. However, management emphasizes that growth will not be driven by volume, but by a richer product mix, personalization, and price increases. What the market may have underestimated: Despite the conservative forecasts, the company continues to demonstrate phenomenal operational efficiency. Ahead of Schedule: At Investor Day, Ferrari raised its guidance, announcing it would hit its 2026 profitability targets a year early (in 2025). Shareholder Returns: A €2 billion share buyback program (3.34% of market cap) has been completed, and a new €3.5 billion buyback program for 2026–2030 has been approved. Dividends: The payout ratio increased from 35% to 40% of adjusted net profit. Strong Demand: The order book is full until 2027. Scarcity and anticipation remains a core pillar of the brand’s value. Key Figures: 🔎