Former ambassador Yashvardhan Kumar Sinha, who served as India’s envoy to Venezuela between January 2007 and August 2009, speaks to Bhaskar Sarma about the surprising ease of Nicolas Maduro’s capture, the uncertainty prevailing in the country, the state of its oil economy, the challenges for oil firms looking to invest there and the trajectory of India-Venezuela ties.No analyst predicted that Trump could swoop into Venezuela and capture Maduro like that. What do you think was behind this extraordinary move?Over the last few months, you had the largest armada assembled in the Caribbean Sea. The idea, everyone thought, was to pressure President Nicolas Maduro into making concessions. But Maduro had already had a conversation with US President Donald Trump on the phone and, according to him, it went well and he was prepared for dialogue. Something was obviously cooking as far as the Americans were concerned. They were remarkably successful in abducting Maduro and his wife.The way it was done with minimal resistance surprised me. The ease with which the special forces went in, extricated Maduro and his wife, and brought them to New York was striking. I have lived in Caracas — it is not far from the sea — and I am sure the Venezuelan military must have been on alert with such a large force outside the country. I understand there was a lot of Chinese equipment; I don’t want to say it was dud equipment, but it was certainly something the Americans were able to neutralise.Who do you think is in charge of Venezuela? There appears to be a lot of confusion.Absolutely, there is a lot of confusion. In his press conference, Trump pointed to the Secretary of State, the Defence Secretary, and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and said “we will run Venezuela”.Story continues below this adThen, the Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, seemed to walk that back. There was a report that he spoke to Delcy Rodríguez, the vice president, who is now the interim president. Her statements have been confrontational. She wants to work with the Americans, but she is very clear about the sovereignty of her country and has asked for the return of Maduro and his wife.In the 2024 election, it was widely believed that the opposition candidate Edmundo González won. If that is the case, then González should have been installed as president. Instead, he has been sidelined. The most popular opposition leader, María Corina Machado, has also been dismissed by Trump as someone who cannot command loyalty. That is surprising.They now appear to be trying to do some deal with Delcy Rodríguez. She is an experienced politician. She has been the foreign minister, the finance minister, the oil minister and the vice president. She is a trusted aide of Nicolas Maduro. Her brother, Jorge, is also an important party functionary and an ideologue. I find it a bit confusing as to how Delcy Rodriguez will serve American interests as she herself has been threatened with possible action. After the constitutionally mandated period, elections should be held within 30 days, but whether they will happen is unclear, especially since the last election was claimed to have been won by the opposition.Even the number two, Diosdado Cabello, the interior minister, has been indicted along with the Maduro family in a New York court, but he is still very much there. He is a powerful functionary and a Chavista loyalist. The defence minister, Vladimir Padrino López, is also around. So it depends very much on which way the Venezuelan military goes, because they were backing Maduro. In the changed circumstances, we will have to watch what the Venezuelan military does.Story continues below this adTrump has made threats against Cuba, Mexico, and Colombia — not to mention Greenland. What does this mean for the security dynamic in Latin America?All bets are off right now. I wouldn’t have expected that Maduro would be picked up the way he was, so it is hazardous to guess what will happen next.But all I can say is that charges of narco-terrorism and drugs in the indictment will have to be proved in court. I’m not sanguine that these charges will hold, simply because Venezuela is not a major conduit for drugs into the US. Fentanyl is associated with Mexico; for cocaine it’s Colombia. So it is surprising that Venezuela was targeted as a source of drug trafficking.Drugs are a problem across the region. The US has a serious fentanyl problem, and both the Trump and Biden administrations have made this a priority. One can understand the desire to clamp down on supply routes and staging points into the US. Whether Venezuela was doing that, and whether Maduro was the head of a cartel as portrayed, seems fanciful.Does the US action embolden Russia and China?It’s difficult to sort of draw comparisons. But any unilateral action of this type, without sanction from the rules-based international order or multilateral system, opens a Pandora’s Box. It sets a wrong precedent for sure. But this is not the first time the US has done something like this. There have been many cases of regime change in South America in the past 100 years or more.Story continues below this adThere was Manuel Noriega (the leader of Panama, who was removed by the US in 1989). Then Juan Hernández of Honduras, who was pardoned later. Salvador Allende in Chile was removed and Augusto Pinochet was installed in his place… Granada was invaded. It is a continuation of an old policy. Trump himself described that they have moved from the Monroe Doctrine to the ‘Don-roe Doctrine’.Also Read | From Monroe to ‘Donroe’: What Trump’s strategy means for IndiaCountries that want to take arbitrary action may feel emboldened.Trump has plans for Venezuela’s oil. But the infrastructure is crumbling, production is low. How did the country’s oil economy collapse?It was American companies that initially invested in and exploited Venezuela’s oil reserves in the last century. After Hugo Chavez nationalised PDVSA in 2007, most American companies left Venezuela, except for a few like Chevron. The government tried to take full control, but it lacked the necessary technology, and many engineers and technicians left the country. Because of the shortage of funds and a squeezed economy, Venezuela could not maintain its production and export levels. This began during Chávez’s time but accelerated under Maduro, to the point where exports became a trickle.Story continues below this adDuring Chávez’s period there were still alternative buyers. Reliance and Essar in India were purchasing Venezuelan crude, and China was buying significant volumes. But once sanctions took effect, Indian offtake fell sharply, though China continued buying.When I was there in 2008, ONGC Videsh (OVL), the overseas arm of ONGC, was given a small oil field called San Cristobal in the Orinoco Basin. Later, when ExxonMobil exited around 2008–2009, a much larger field called Carabobo was allotted to OVL, Petrobras, Repsol and others for development. However, given the situation in Venezuela, investments may not have been commensurate with what was required. There were difficulties in taking out dividends and selling the oil. The Venezuelan economy was certainly mismanaged, but it was also heavily squeezed from outside.What is the way forward for the Venezuelan oil industry?When President Trump refers to “our oil,” he is pointing to the historic investments American companies made there and the resources they helped exploit. If and when American companies return — and that “if” is important given the current political uncertainty — it will take both significant time and investment to restore production to the levels Venezuela had 15–20 years ago. Much of Venezuela’s oil is heavy, sour crude, which cannot be processed cheaply or by all refineries.Story continues below this adAnd it is not only oil: Venezuela also has gold, iron ore, copper, rare earths and abundant water resources, including around the Angel Falls region. It is a resource-rich country, with natural beauty and a temperate climate. All of this makes Venezuela highly attractive — which is why so many external actors want influence there.Of the BRICS countries, it’s India that has given the most moderate response. Given the US tariffs, did it really have any other choice other than respond the way it did?India could have condemned the action like a large number of countries have done. But ours was a very measured treatment because for us the relationship with the US is very important and ties are at a delicate stage. So the government has chosen to be cautious and perhaps wisely so. But obviously the last word has not been said yet because we don’t know how things will pan out. That’s what multi-alignment and hedging is all about.What has been the general trajectory of India-Venezuela ties in the past? Did Chavez enjoy warmer ties with India?Story continues below this adI would think so because Chavez was a charismatic man. When he came to India (in 2005), he was received very well. Maduro doesn’t have the sort of charisma that Chavez has. In my time as ambassador there, there were visits by ministers Anand Sharma and Murli Deora, and both of them got audiences with President Chavez.There was also a strong cultural connection. Chavez had a very high regard for India. Venezuela has about at least three or four statues of Mahatma Gandhi. Caracas had three Hindu temples.Distance has been a prohibiting factor in the relationship. We are not in each other’s neighborhood but we are part of the global south. We are part of the Non-Aligned Movement. We were part of the G15. We did work together multilaterally. And we had good bilateral relations. Our trade was looking up. We were buying more oil. We had pharma and IT companies invested in Venezuela. But then later on all that sort of collapsed because of the economy being in a sorry state, and now most companies have probably left. I heard that there were less than 100 Indians in Venezuela.Even though political ties have not been very close in recent years, there have still been high-level contacts. There were several interactions over the past 10–12 years, including meetings at the UN and other multilateral conferences. So the relationship has never been only about oil, although oil certainly gave it a major boost when India began importing Venezuelan crude.How have the ties been under Maduro?Story continues below this adI would say there has been some neglect, partly because India has been occupied with many other priorities, and Venezuela was slowly being ostracised by the West while moving much closer to China. All of this affected the relationship. That said, our ties with the Venezuelan leadership have remained cordial. Relations under Chávez were particularly warm, but even with Maduro the relationship has been cordial, though not very strong. Circumstances largely determined the level of engagement. Importantly, there was no hostility or antipathy on either side.