Energy Shock From Iran War Puts ECB Policy on Edge

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The war involving Iran has suddenly complicated that picture.If higher energy prices persist and begin to shift inflation expectations, ECB officials are warning that the central bank’s comfortable wait-and-see stance could change.ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could push up inflation expectations and eventually prompt a shift in the ECB’s policy stance. For now, policymakers still assume the conflict will be short-lived.But de Guindos made clear that duration is the key variable. A temporary shock is something central banks can look through. A persistent shock is something that forces them to act.The immediate concern is energy. Oil and gas prices have jumped following the escalation between Iran, the U.S., and Israel, reviving a familiar European anxiety. Energy shocks move quickly into headline inflation and can spread through the economy if businesses and households begin to assume higher prices are here to stay.Other ECB policymakers echoed that caution. Finnish central bank governor Olli Rehn warned against assuming the conflict will end quickly, noting the risk of escalation. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said the length of the war will ultimately determine the economic consequences. If energy prices remain elevated for a prolonged period, he said, inflation would rise while economic activity would weaken. If the conflict ends quickly, the impact on prices would likely prove temporary.There is still no consensus that higher rates are required. Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said the surge in oil prices alone does not justify tightening policy. Instead, the ECB is maintaining a meeting-by-meeting approach, watching whether the energy shock proves temporary or begins to influence broader inflation dynamics.Markets, however, are already adjusting their expectations. Morgan Stanley said it no longer expects the ECB to cut interest rates this year, reversing its earlier forecast of two rate cuts. That shift reflects the growing sense that energy prices could keep inflation higher than policymakers anticipated only weeks ago.Our analysts just identified a stock with the potential to be the next Nvidia. Tell us how you invest and we'll show you why it's our #1 pick. Tap here.Energy shocks are among the most difficult problems for central banks because they affect both sides of the economy simultaneously. 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