AMAT Starting to PullbackApplied Materials, Inc.BATS:AMATRocDiDoApplied Materials (AMAT) has been on an exceptional run since April 2025 after perfectly retracing to test its multi-year ascending trendline support. That retest triggered a powerful bullish move that carried price all the way back to the upper boundary of the same multi-year trend channel. Recently, AMAT reached the exact upper trendline resistance, printing an all-time high near $399.50 (outside regular trading hours), testing the psychological $400 level. At that level, price formed a textbook gravestone doji on the weekly chart after months of strong bullish momentum. This candle appeared directly at long-term resistance following a nearly uninterrupted series of green weekly candles. Likewise, RSI & MFI are overextended on the Weekly & Monthly Timeframes suggesting a short-term pullback. The technical shift became clearer this week: - AMAT rejected the multi-year resistance trendline - A gravestone doji marked the exhaustion point - The following week produced a large bearish candle - Price closed below the weekly 9 EMA for the first time since September 2025 The longer-term trend remains bullish, supported by strong fundamentals. Demand for semiconductor equipment continues to surge as the AI infrastructure buildout accelerates, with hyperscalers aggressively increasing capex. This has driven strong earnings expectations and rising analyst price targets. However, momentum appears stretched, and early technical signals suggest a short-term pullback is likely. The next major technical level sits around $271, where: - A weekly gap remains unfilled - The monthly 9 EMA is rising into the same area - 0.382 Fibonacci Level - Monthly FVG A pullback toward this region would represent a healthy retracement within the broader bullish trend. From a longer-term perspective, AMAT’s valuation also suggests potential overextension, with fair value estimates closer to ~$235. If broader market consolidation continues, price may gradually move closer to intrinsic value. One additional pattern worth monitoring: Over the past decade, every major AMAT pullback from a peak to trough has taken approximately 9 months. If this rhythm holds again, the current cycle could imply a potential low around late 2026 / early 2027, near $185. That level would also align with: - The point of control (POC) on the volume profile - A high probability bullish retest of the decade-long trendline support, which has already been validated five times For now, the key focus is whether AMAT continues to lose momentum below the weekly 9 EMA. If price begins to break the monthly 9 EMA, it could signal the start of a deeper correction phase. With the broader equity market currently consolidating and April–August historically weaker months for AMAT, the coming weeks should provide important confirmation. Key Levels to Watch Resistance: ~$400 (multi-year trendline) Near-term support: ~$271 (weekly gap + monthly 9 EMA) Long-term accumulation zone: ~$185 (trendline support + volume profile POC) For now, this looks less like a trend reversal and more like the early stages of a cooling phase after a parabolic run.