Hormuz Shock Sends China and India Racing for Russian Crude

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Despite repeated assurances from U.S. officials that the waterway was never formally blocked, satellite tracking suggests that no oil or product tankers transited the strait since March 1. The disruption immediately placed the world’s largest importers under pressure. China and India together consume tens of millions of barrels per day, and both remain structurally dependent on Gulf crude. China has steadily expanded purchases of Russian oil since 2022, yet roughly 1/3 of its crude imports originate in the Gulf. India, meanwhile, has been deliberately reducing its earlier heavy reliance on Russian barrels and replacing them with Middle Eastern supplies. With the Iranian crisis unfolding and no quick normalization of Hormuz traffic in sight, both Asian giants may turn to their long-standing supplier in Moscow like never before. The key question is: does Russia have sufficient export capacity to meet the sudden surge in demand?The shift in India’s purchasing pattern has been particularly visible in recent months. Indian imports of Russian crude declined steadily from 1.85 million b/d in November 2025 to just 1.06 million b/d in February 2026. Much of the remaining flow has been concentrated in a single outlet: the Vadinar refinery operated by Nayara Energy, partly owned by Rosneft. By February, roughly half of the Russian crude delivered to India (around 510,000 b/d out of the 1.06 million b/d total) was imported there. In November 2025, the share was markedly smaller, with 560,000 b/d flowing to Vadinar out of the 1.85 million b/d imported overall. The retreat from Russian supply was largely driven by mounting pressure from Washington, prompting Indian refiners to stop buying Russian barrels. By February 2026 crude from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait accounted for more than half of India’s total imports of 5.18 million b/d, reaching roughly 2.8 million b/d compared with just 2 million b/d in November 2025. The nearly 1 million b/d increase reflected a belief that Gulf crude offered legal stability and relatively low prices. That assumption is now being severely tested, as a significant share of those cargoes is effectively stranded in Gulf waters waiting for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The disruption is likely to force New Delhi to reconsider its recent distancing from Russian supply – assuming those barrels are still available.Related: How China’s Rare Earth Ban Backfired into a U.S. Tech BreakthroughTerms and Privacy PolicyPrivacy & Cookie SettingsMore InfoS&P 5006,740.02 -90.69 (-1.33%)Dow 3047,501.55 -453.19 (-0.95%)Nasdaq22,387.68 -361.31 (-1.59%)Russell 20002,525.30 -60.27 (-2.33%)VIX29.49 +5.74 (+24.17%)Gold5,181.30 +102.60 (+2.02%)Trending tickersBTC-USD Bitcoin USD 68,244.80 -2,658.81 (-3.75%)VRT Vertiv Holdings Co 241.78 -7.97 (-3.19%)LITE Lumentum Holdings Inc. 558.44 -92.38 (-14.19%)BE Bloom Energy Corporation 135.19 -24.80 (-15.50%)PRSO Peraso Inc. 2.0400 +1.2290 (+151.54%)PortfolioSign in to access your portfolioSign inTop gainersDAWN Day One Biopharmaceuticals, Inc. 21.20 +8.42 (+65.88%)IOT Samsara Inc. 35.36 +5.78 (+19.54%)MRVL Marvell Technology, Inc. 89.57 +13.89 (+18.35%)EMAT Evolution Metals & Technologies Corp. 9.76 +1.25 (+14.69%)IOVA Iovance Biotherapeutics, Inc. 5.13 +0.55 (+12.01%)Top losersINGM Ingram Micro Holding Corporation 22.06 -4.30 (-16.31%)BE Bloom Energy Corporation 135.19 -24.80 (-15.50%)GAP The Gap, Inc. 23.28 -3.92 (-14.41%)LITE Lumentum Holdings Inc. 558.44 -92.38 (-14.19%)JEF Jefferies Financial Group Inc. 38.29 -5.99 (-13.53%)Most activeNVDA NVIDIA Corporation 177.82 -5.52 (-3.01%)ONDS Ondas Inc. 9.83 -0.63 (-6.05%)AAL American Airlines Group Inc. 11.18 -0.61 (-5.17%)MRVL Marvell Technology, Inc. 89.57 +13.89 (+18.35%)BBD Banco Bradesco S.A. 3.6800 -0.0600 (-1.60%)Top economic eventsEarnings eventsMy earnings eventsEarnings events